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Expect Higher Turnout Among African Americans Versus That of Whites

11/2/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr Nader
OH CD 10/22-31
O+5%
52% 46% - -
MI DFP 10/28-31
O+14%
53% 37% - -
CO Mason 10/28-29
O+6%
49% 44% - -
KY Mason 10/27-29
M+11%
42% 51% - -
IA DMR 10/28-31
O+17%
54% 37% 1% 2%
NV Mason 10/28-29
O+5%
47% 43% - -
ME Rass 11/1
O+13%
56% 43% - -
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CNN: Obama 53, McCain 46.
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46.
Gallup (expanded): Obama 52, McCain 43.
Diageo: Obama 50, McCain 44.
Zogby: Obama 50, McCain 44.
IBD: Obama 47, McCain 45.

National Poll Average: Obama 50.5, McCain 44.7. (Obama +5.8%)

Gallup has updated their likely voter pool to include more black voters. According to them, "black turnout rates this year may approach or match turnout rates among whites".

The underpinnings of that statement is reflected in their analysis. "Gallup analysis shows that blacks this year are just as likely as whites to report being registered to vote, and match the high levels of interest in the campaign and self-reported intention to vote seen among whites. The increase since 2004 on the latter two measures among blacks most likely reflects black voters' reaction to the candidacy of the first major-party black presidential nominee in U.S. history."

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