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Crowded Field Would Benefit Hillary Clinton if Al Gore Runs; Statistical Analysis

Published May 13, 2007

A lot of speculation has been made with regards to whether or not Al Gore will be seeking the office of the Presidency in 2008. Many voters believed that the election was stolen from him in 2000 when he lost by the slimmest of margins in Florida.

The political pundits and pollsters have already characterized the race without Gore but the dynamics of a Gore candidacy can change everything we know now. So let's check it out.

To analyze what impact the Gore candidacy has on the current field of democratic candidates, we are going to sort through all of the state polls that we have in our database and separate them into bundles with Gore and without Gore.

There have been 46 democratic primary polls taken across the United States with Al Gore as a candidate in 2007. Here is how they averaged in those polls.

All State Polls from 1/1/2007 with Gore
Clinton
35.2
Obama 17.9
Edwards 12.0
Gore 11.2
Biden 2.3
Richardson 2.2
All State Polls from 4/1/2007 with Gore
Clinton 35.5
Obama 18.3
Edwards 13.7
Gore 10.8
Biden 1.7
Richardson 2.8

There have been 77 polls that have excluded Al Gore as a candidate. And here is how the top tier candidates performed without Al Gore.

All State Polls from 1/1/2007 w/o Gore
Clinton 33.4
Obama 21.2
Edwards 17.1
Biden 3.5
Richardson 2.8
All State Polls from 4/1/2007 w/o Gore
Clinton 34.5
Obama 22.6
Edwards 18.6
Biden 3.2
Richardson 2.7

We also looked only at those polls taken from April 1 to the present in case we see any oddities.

Without Gore. Obama, Edwards, Biden, and Richardson have each obviously gained in the polls without Gore but Clinton interestingly dropped!

Gore Candidacy Does Not Impact Clinton. Instead of picking a psychological reason as to how Clinton could worsen without Gore being mentioned, PresidentPolls2008.com offers the likelihood that the specific states involved in polling with and without Gore may shift the percentages around a bit. But it is safe to conclude that a Gore candidacy has little impact on Clinton because her base of support is the strongest of all candidates.

Edwards Impacted Most. According to all of the polls taken in 2007, Gore has the largest impact on Edwards. Edwards drops off approximately 30% and Obama approximately 15% with Gore in the running.

Edwards and Obama Splitting the Gore Vote. If you look at all of the polls since April you would see that of Gore's approximate 11% support; 5.0% go to Edwards and 4.5% go to Obama. So it is safe to say that Gore is mostly taking support away from the other male candidates: Obama and Edwards.

Clinton Unscathed. Clinton comes out the winner in all of this. A strong Al Gore campaign will take away votes from the Edwards and Obama camps but do nothing to thwart her own support.

Al Gore - A Lost Cause? If Gore comes into the race, he is going to have to beat Clinton while sharing votes with the other candidates. In a crowded field as we have, there just might not be enough votes for Gore to be successful. And we must humbly tell Al Gore that running for president in 2008 is a lost cause.

Polls That Were Used. The following polls (sorted by state) were used in our analysis and are archived by the good folks at PresidentPolls2008.com, a site that has the full results of each of these polls and more. The polls used in our analysis are up to and including polls released as late as 5/6/07.

 

Polls w/ Gore
Polls w/o Gore
  1. Capital Survey Research Center / Alabama Education Association (4/16/2007), Alabama
  2. Capital Survey Research Center / Alabama Education Association (2/24/2007), Alabama
  3. Capital Survey Research Center / Alabama Education Association (1/16/2007), Alabama
  4. University of South Alabama / Press Register (4/18/2007), Alabama
  5. Arizona State University / KAET TV (4/21/2007), Arizona
  6. Arizona State University / KAET TV (2/24/2007), Arizona
  7. Arizona State University / KAET TV (1/20/2007), Arizona
  8. Behavior Research Center Rocky Mountain Poll (3/16/2007), Arizona
  9. Behavior Research Center Rocky Mountain Poll (1/17/2007), Arizona
  10. The Field Poll. (3/26/2007), California
  11. Quinnipiac University Poll (2/11/2007), Connecticut
  12. Quinnipiac University Poll (4/20/2007), Florida
  13. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/24/2007), Florida
  14. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/1/2007), Florida
  15. Quinnipiac University Poll (2/1/2007), Florida
  16. Strategic Vision (1/13/2007), Georgia
  17. 7News Suffolk University (4/14/2007), Massachusetts
  18. Michigan Information & Research Services/Rossman Group/Denno Noor Research poll (2/22/2007), Michigan
  19. Detroit Free Press Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted by Selzer & Co (1/30/2007), Michigan
  20. Mason Dixon Polling & Research for The Las Vegas Review Journal (5/1/2007), Nevada
  21. Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette Journal and News 4 (3/7/2007), Nevada
  22. CNN/WMUR Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire (3/31/2007), New-Hampshire
  23. CNN/WMUR Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire (2/3/2007), New-Hampshire
  24. Franklin Pierce College / WBZ Poll conducted with RKM Research and Communications (12/10/2007), New-Hampshire
  25. Quinnipiac University Poll (4/13/2007), New-Jersey
  26. Quinnipiac University Poll (2/23/2007), New-Jersey
  27. Quinnipiac University Poll (1/19/2007), New-Jersey
  28. Monmouth University / Gannett New Jersey Poll (4/14/2007), New-Jersey
  29. Siena College Poll (4/18/2007), New-York
  30. Siena College Poll (3/21/2007), New-York
  31. Siena College Poll (2/17/2007), New-York
  32. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/31/2007), New-York
  33. Quinnipiac University Poll (2/9/2007), New-York
  34. WNBC/Marist College Poll (3/21/2007), New-York
  35. Quinnipiac University Poll (4/21/2007), Ohio
  36. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/16/2007), Ohio
  37. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/1/2007), Ohio
  38. Quinnipiac University Poll (1/26/2007), Ohio
  39. Center for Marketing & Opinion Research for the Ray C Bliss Institute University of Akron (2/5/2007), Ohio
  40. Tulsa World / KOTV Oklahoma Poll conducted by SoonerPoll.com (1/20/2007), Oklahoma
  41. Riley Research Associates (3/9/2007), Oregon
  42. Quinnipiac University Poll (4/21/2007), Pennsylvania
  43. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/22/2007), Pennsylvania
  44. Quinnipiac University Poll (3/1/2007), Pennsylvania
  45. Quinnipiac University Poll (2/3/2007), Pennsylvania
  46. Chernoff Newman / MarketSearch Presidential Brand Study (4/13/2007), South-Carolina
  1. American Research Group (2/11/2007), Alabama
  2. American Research Group (2/11/2007), Arizona
  3. American Research Group (3/18/2007), Arkansas
  4. The Mellman Group (D) for Working Californians (4/10/2007), California
  5. The Field Poll. (3/26/2007), California
  6. Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey (3/17/2007), California
  7. American Research Group (1/14/2007), California
  8. American Research Group (3/18/2007), Colorado
  9. American Research Group (2/4/2007), Connecticut
  10. Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll (2/23/2007), Delaware
  11. University of North Florida (4/8/2007), Florida
  12. Strategic Vision (3/10/2007), Florida
  13. American Research Group (2/25/2007), Florida
  14. American Research Group (1/7/2007), Florida
  15. Strategic Vision (4/6/2007), Georgia
  16. Strategic Vision (2/24/2007), Georgia
  17. American Research Group (1/13/2007), Illinois
  18. American Research Group (4/29/2007), Iowa
  19. American Research Group (3/21/2007), Iowa
  20. American Research Group (1/31/2007), Iowa
  21. Strategic Vision (3/31/2007), Iowa
  22. Strategic Vision (2/17/2007), Iowa
  23. Strategic Vision (1/20/2007), Iowa
  24. University of Iowa (3/25/2007), Iowa
  25. Zogby International Poll (3/26/2007), Iowa
  26. Zogby International Poll (2/8/2007), Iowa
  27. Zogby International Poll (1/16/2007), Iowa
  28. Critical Insights (4/24/2007), Maine
  29. American Research Group (2/4/2007), Maine
  30. American Research Group (2/4/2007), Massachusetts
  31. American Research Group (5/6/2007), Michigan
  32. American Research Group (2/25/2007), Michigan
  33. American Research Group (1/6/2007), Michigan
  34. Strategic Vision (4/14/2007), Michigan
  35. Strategic Vision (3/10/2007), Michigan
  36. EPIC/MRA (3/15/2007), Michigan
  37. American Research Group (1/7/2007), Missouri
  38. Zogby International (4/12/2007), Nevada
  39. Voter Survey Service / Susquehanna Polling & Research (3/8/2007), Nevada
  40. American Research Group (4/28/2007), New-Hampshire
  41. American Research Group (3/21/2007), New-Hampshire
  42. American Research Group (2/1/2007), New-Hampshire
  43. Zogby International (4/3/2007), New-Hampshire
  44. Zogby International (2/8/2007), New-Hampshire
  45. Zogby International (1/16/2007), New-Hampshire
  46. Suffolk University Poll (2/26/2007), New-Hampshire
  47. Strategic Vision (4/26/2007), New-Jersey
  48. American Research Group (3/31/2007), New-Jersey
  49. Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll (3/2/2007), New-Jersey
  50. Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll (1/5/2007), New-Jersey
  51. American Research Group (1/12/2007), New-Mexico
  52. Siena College Poll (1/25/2007), New-York
  53. NY1 Poll conducted by Blum & Weprin Associates (4/6/2007), New-York
  54. American Research Group (4/1/2007), New-York
  55. Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (4/13/2007), North-Carolina
  56. Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (3/15/2007), North-Carolina
  57. Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (2/14/2007), North-Carolina
  58. American Research Group (1/13/2007), North-Carolina
  59. American Research Group (2/11/2007), Oklahoma
  60. Strategic Vision (4/14/2007), Pennsylvania
  61. Strategic Vision (3/17/2007), Pennsylvania
  62. Triad Strategies / Susquehanna Polling and Research (2/18/2007), Pennsylvania
  63. American Research Group (1/6/2007), Pennsylvania
  64. Brown University (1/27/2007), Rhode-Island
  65. American Research Group (4/29/2007), South-Carolina
  66. American Research Group (2/25/2007), South-Carolina
  67. Hamilton Beattie & Staff and Ayres McHenry & Associates for the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and the Conservation Voters of South Carolina Education Fund (4/17/2007), South-Carolina
  68. Barrington Broadcasting poll conducted by Zogby International (4/17/2007), South-Carolina
  69. Chernoff Newman / MarketSearch Presidential Brand Study (4/13/2007), South-Carolina
  70. WIS TV/Communities for Quality Education poll conducted by Garin Hart Yang Research Group (4/11/2007), South-Carolina
  71. American Research Group (3/18/2007), Texas
  72. American Research Group (2/11/2007), Utah
  73. American Research Group (2/4/2007), Vermont
  74. American Research Group (4/1/2007), West-Virginia
  75. Strategic Vision (5/5/2007), Wisconsin
  76. Strategic Vision (2/24/2007), Wisconsin
  77. St Norbert College / Wisconsin Public Radio Wisconsin Survey (4/10/2007), Wisconsin
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Odds of Winning

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Senate Races 2008

AL: Sessions vs Figures
AK: Stevens vs Begich
CO: Schaffer vs Udall
IA: Reed vs Harkin
ID: Risch vs Larocco
KS: Roberts vs Slattery
KY: McConnell vs Lunsford
LA: Kennedy vs Landrieu
MA: Beatty vs Kerry
MI: Hoogendyk vs Levin
ME: Collins vs Allen
MN: Coleman vs Franken
MS: Cochran vs Fleming
MS: Wicker vs Musgrove
NC: Dole vs Hagan
NE: Johanns vs Kleeb
NH: Sununu vs Shaheen
NJ: Zimmer vs Lautenberg
NM: Pearce vs Udall
OK: Inhofe vs Rice
OR: Smith vs Merkley
SD: Dykstra vs Johnson
TX: Cornyn vs Noriega

VA: Gilmore vs Warner

 

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M.S. Engineering; UCLA

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One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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