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Poll of Polls: Barack Obama Really Up Double Digits Nationally

10/14/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr Nader
Nat'l CBS 10/10-13
Nat'l Polls
51% 39% 1% 3%
Nat'l LAT 10/10-13 47% 39% 1% 3%
CO Suffolk 10/10-13
O+8%
47% 43% - -
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Method Obama McCain
Latest Poll Per State 347 166
Poll of Polls 357 166
Weekly National Average 49.8% 40.2%

Although the daily tracking polls show Obama's advantage in the 5-8% range, the raw national polls average has him up double digits. In fact, if you take all of the national polls from the past week, average them, round off... Obama is ahead of McCain 50% to 40%.

State Date Obama McCain
ABC News National Polls 10/8-11 53 43
CBS National Polls 10/10-13 51 39
Democracy Corps National Polls 10/8-12 50 40
Fox News National Polls 10/8-9 46 39
Los Angeles Times National Polls 10/10-13 47 39
Newsweek National Polls 10/8-9 52 41
AVERAGE X 49.8% 40.2%

Tracking polls are good way of determining a candidate's movement in the polls but they do not necessarily do the best job in characterizing, profiling, and surveying the demographics properly -- thus they may not be as accurate. This is the reason, I argue, that the tracking polls are likely underestimating Obama's support. So when McCain said he was only down 6% in a rally on Monday, he was following the tracking polls. Obama supporters could very well state that they are up 10%... which is what I believe he is.

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