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Bill Richardson - Likely to Win Iowa 2008

We are going to go out on a limb six months in advance of the Iowa Caucus to predict that Bill Richardson will win the state of Iowa in this election cycle.

Bill Richardson was at 1.0% in both Iowa and New Hampshire six months ago. Now he is hovering around double digits.

Here is a table of the polling averages of each of the two major states since January 2007.

Richardson has been able to make consistent gains in Iowa. A Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates poll showed that Bill Richardson had 18% support among the most likely voters in Iowa, 13% among all likely voters. Their determination of who is the most likely voter is unknown to us but was some fraction of all likely voters. With 18%, he edged Barack Obama by 2%.

Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates for Gov Bill Richardson
6/23/2007

Before the Iowa Caucus in 2004, it was generally believed that Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were the front runners. But they came in third and fourth in the state respectively. John Kerry and John Edwards were voted in #1 and #2. Iowa voters do not look to the polls to help them to determine who to vote for. They vote based on the issues and the candidates themselves.

Bill Richardson is winning the issues war because he is the only Democratic candidate running for president that is a Governor. Iowans traditionally prefer Governors because they have executive experience.

We have made a lot of successful predictions with regards to Bill Richardson. We claimed success for the candidate in February in March when he started to poll a little bit above the margin of error. Then we predicted his campaign's momentum was stronger than Obama's campaign just before the Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates poll that put him 2% above Obama in Iowa among most likely voters.

Richardson has a long way to go with respect to his national name recognition. He is also going to have an extremely tough time winning New Hampshire because Obama is competing quite well in that state. Mistakes by Clinton and Edwards help Richardson in Iowa but they help Obama in New Hampshire. Hypothetically, a win in New Hampshire by Obama could effectively erase the success Richardson had in Iowa heading into the February 5 primaries.

But time is on Richardson's side.

• Richardson is committed to a positive campaign and favorability ratings go a long way.
• He is a very likeable candidate and few in the Democratic party would attack him. He is also not likely to be attacked because he would never be considered as a top tier candidate until after Iowa and he wins.
• The more familiar voters are with him, the more they like him. His familiarity ratings are lower than the other candidates so there is more room for him to grow.
• More time means more mistakes are likely by current leaders Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. After the NAACP forum, Clinton and Edwards discussed the need to eliminate other candidates because they are "not serious" is a classic example of a campaign blunder.

Al Gore Factor. Unfortunately for Richardson, a drop in the polls for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards would surely open the door for an Al Gore candidacy. Gore is already getting 15% in the polls and would benefit from a struggling Clinton and Edwards. Many believe that Gore is not yet running in this race so that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama can beat up on each other a little bit.

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