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USAElectionPolls.com: California General Election Poll

5/19/08

McCain vs Obama

Results: Obama 49%, McCain 35%, Nader 5%, Ron Paul 4%.
Clinton 51%, McCain 37%, Nader 4%, Ron Paul 5%.
N=399, MoE = 5%. Conducted May 14, 2008.

Highlights:

• Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among white voters but fails to get even 50% of the black vote.
• In a McCain-Clinton matchup, 30% of black voters would either stay home or vote for a third party candidate.
• Clinton beats McCain by 25% among women, Obama wins that demographic by 14%.
• Clinton and McCain are tied among men, Obama leads that category by 10%.
• Men are twice as likely to support a third party candidate, suggesting that women are much more determined to see a Democrat in the White House.
• In a Clinton-McCain matchup, it is the black vote that is most tempted to follow a third party candidate. In a Obama-McCain matchup, it is the male voters.

Polling Methodology Statement: Registration based sampling was used to get the voters participating in this poll. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) was used to conduct the poll and obtain the results.

Women comprised of 61.2% of the respondents to our poll so we weighted the results at 53/47 F/M, we get the following:

Voters who stay at home do not have an official vote cast on the ballot, so we've decided to renormalize the results by taking stay at home voters out of the mix.

After rounding, Obama's lead extends from 12% to 14% but matches the results of other pollsters.

McCain does slightly worse in our poll, as much as 8% compared to Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA, likely due to the inclusion of both Ralph Nader and Ron Paul as candidates. Second choices were not measured.

We slightly oversampled the African American vote but undersampled the Latino vote. With Obama in the race, it may be correct to assume that Blacks would make up closer to 10% of the vote than the 6% achieved in 2004. Due to the small sample sizes of these demographics, we did not weight the results based on ethnicity.

Here is the breakdown by race.

McCain vs Clinton

Our results for the Clinton-McCain matchup in California also matched the results of other pollsters.

Clinton does not even pull 50% of the black vote here in California according to our poll. If Clinton wants to claim that she is the most electable by stating white working class voters are more willing to vote for her over Obama then she should also point to the black vote that may not vote for her come November.

Democrats tend to rely on the African American vote come November so it is to be seen whether Clinton can rely on their support or not.

Keep in mind that the sample size of African Americans in this poll is small so it is best not to jump to conclusions about the exact results of this demographic but rather the fact that her support is considerably lower than Obama's.

Crosstabs and results from other questions in this poll will be released Tuesday May 20, 2008.

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