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Clinton's Superdelegate Strategy May Not Work4/28/08 Howard Dean called for the superdelegates to make up their minds a week ago but his demands seemed to fall on deaf ears these past 2 weeks. And what it suggests, at least to me, is that Clinton's reliance upon the superdelegates to bail her out will probably fall flat.
Thinking about it as a non-partisan outsider who cares more about the numbers than the politics, I see it this way. If there were superdelegates holding out for Clinton and/or on the edge of voting for Clinton, don't you think they would have come out in droves for Clinton after her victory in Pennsylvania? Heck, they could have come out after her victories in Texas and Ohio. I could understand their hesitancy to back the former first lady when she lost practically every single primary between February 5th and March 4th but what is their excuse right now when Clinton's momentum seem to be at their peak? If anything, it suggests that there may no longer be any Clinton superdelegates out there. All of them probably already had pledged their support ahead of time. But then the overriding question looms, why aren't they coming out in droves to support Barack Obama? Are they waiting for him to win North Carolina and possibly Indiana on May 6th? If so, Indiana becomes ever so crucial for Clinton to stay in this thing. Then again, they probably love all the attention they get from the Obama and Clinton campaigns by NOT deciding. This is not to say Clinton has no chance. She can still net some of the superdelegates but she is also going to need to have the delegates counted in Florida and Michigan. And then it would certainly be to her advantage to have John Edwards endorse her and fork over his delegates in what could be a deal that gives Edwards the VP nod. Rumor is that Elizabeth Edwards may be endorsing Clinton due to her health care plan.
The political betting odds have Obama as the 2/9 favorite to be the next Democratic nominee; meaning that he has an 82% chance of being the nominee.
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