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CNN Projects John McCain the Winner, Only Zogby and Suffolk Got Florida Right

1/29/08

With wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, John McCain is the clear front runner in the race for the Republican nomination. When CNN made is projection as to who the winner was, it was McCain 36%, Romney 32%, Giuliani 16%, Huckabee 13%, Paul 3%.

Independent Republicans and Latinos were the one's responsible for swaying this election. According to the CNN Exit polls, 17% of the voters identified themselves as Independents and they broke for John McCain 41% to Romney's 23%. Republicans who made up 80% of the voters swung slightly to Romney 33% to 31%.

Latino voters made up 10% of the election and they broke for McCain 51% to Giuliani's 25% to Romney's 15%.

Assuming that sticks and are the final results, only two out of nine pollsters got it right. Those pollsters are Zogby and Suffolk University. Five of nine pollsters called the race to be within 1% either side. And the remaining two pollsters had Romney adead by 2%.

Pollsters that were correct.

Pollster Date JM MR RG MH RP Other
Zogby 1/27-28 35 31 13 13 2 7
Suffolk University 1/25-27 30 27 13 11 4 16

Pollsters calling the race within 1%.

Pollster Date JM MR RG MH RP Other
Insider Advantage 1/28 31 30 13 15 2 9
Survey USA 1/27-28 32 31 15 13 6 3
Strategic Vision 1/25-27 27 26 17 15 5 10
Quinnipiac 1/24-27 32 31 14 13 3 8
Rasmussen Reports 1/27 31 31 16 11 4 4

Pollsters that Said Romney by 2%.

Pollster Date JM MR RG MH RP Other
Mitchell Interactive 1/27-28 32 34 13 10 3 7
American Research Group 1/27-28 32 34 11 12 4 6
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