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Consequences to the Candidates of Florida’s Earlier Primary

May 23, 2007

Florida signed a bill on Monday May 21, 2007 that moves its state primary to January 29, 2007 with South Carolina. By doing so, they leap frog over a handful of states that are holding their primaries on February 5, 2007. This means they will hold a bigger hand in who gets nominated. But what impact does it do in the race.

First, let’s look at the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton clearly gains a bit of an advantage here. She is doing the best of all the candidates in Florida. Her lead in Florida is much larger than the average lead she holds in all of the other states.

Barack Obama benefits as well but in a non-traditional way. Current polls suggest that Edwards is leading Iowa and New Hampshire. Most believe that winning those two states would guarantee him in South Carolina. That is 3 of 4 states heading into the February 5 so-called “National Primary”. Adding Florida at the top gives Obama one more state to compete in to boost his campaign heading into the big day.

John Edwards can not like this news. As stated above, Edwards is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire; would win South Carolina. He would be looking like the front runner heading into the Feb 5 national primary. But Florida is up in the air. If Clinton and Obama do well in the state, the race would be looking very well up for grabs. And you have got to believe that if Clinton wins Florida and California, that she would be the hands-down nominee. That is because New York is all but hers.

Bill Richardson should have mixed feelings. Like Obama, he benefits because it gives him one more state to compete in before the Feb 5 election. But having less money than all of the other candidates, he may not be able to compete in advertising. He has a lot of money saved up from his 2006 bid for New Mexico governor so he is not in as bad a shape as a Biden, Dodd, or Kucinich. And he also brags about being the toughest working campaigner so that is okay. But because Florida is such a large state, advertising is key to get the recognition you need. Florida has a large Spanish speaking population and the Richardson campaign will need to associate with that segment of the population.

Now, let’s look at the Republicans.

It is not so clear-cut who benefits right now. Giuliani is from New York. Romney is from Massachusetts. McCain is from Arizona. None of the top 3 has a clear advantage in Florida. We claimed an advantage for Clinton in Florida at this point because she is leading the polls. We do not do the same for the Republicans because a lot has changed. First, McCain was clearly the front runner. Then it became Giuliani. Now it seems like Romney might be the front runner. Too much has been going on.

John McCain, we feel, is the biggest loser because of this. He has less money than Romney and Giuliani. But the same would be true heading into the so-called National Primary on February 5, 2008.

Mitt Romney, we feel, could become the biggest winner. He has a clear advantage in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he were to win those states, the momentum for his campaign would become so strong that he does not mind more states to have their primaries earlier. February 5 would seem like ages since the New Hampshire primary and people would forget his success. Adding Florida to the mix increases the number of states to compete in earlier while momentum is on his side.

Rudy Giuliani probably does not benefit. His campaign is going into the toilet right now thanks to his poor performance at the first debate. And the lacks of enthusiasm people are having for his campaign. Romney is outclassing him. And McCain seems to know what he wants. At this point, Giuliani needs to worry about Iowa and New Hampshire, not when Florida takes place.

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