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ron paulDissecting Ron Paul's 14% in New Hampshire

1/5/08

Premium members of Rasmussen Reports have access to the crosstabbed information from any poll and when Ron Paul gets 14% in this poll, we just had to see where most of his success was coming from.

Gender

  • Men - 16%
  • Women - 10%

Age

  • 18-29 - 29%
  • 30-39 - 14%
  • 40-49 - 12%
  • 50-64 - 15%
  • 65+ - 3%

Party

  • Republican: 10%
  • Other: 22%

Ideology

  • Conservative: 11%
  • Moderate: 13%
  • Liberal: 29%
  • Unsure: 83%

Married

  • Yes - 12%
  • No - 21%

Children at Home

  • Yes - 16%
  • No - 12%

Okay so the reason this is all relevant is because the demographics that Ron Paul is doing well with are the exact same demographics that tend to be underrepresented in the polls. Voter turnout could catapult Ron Paul into the 20-percent range, we are just not sure yet.

Ron Paul also seems to be cutting into the same demographic that John McCain is successful with. So if the Independent and younger voters go to Ron Paul, are they doing it at the expense of John McCain. That could cost McCain the Primary as he is in a hotly contested fight with Romney for first place.

Ron Paul still has a long way to go before before challenging for first place as his net favorability rating is at just 42% versus McCain (71%) and Romney (64%).

Here are the highlights:

  1. Ron Paul is first in New Hampshire among the under 30 crowd (tied with McCain).
  2. Ron Paul is is second among voters identifying themselves as "Not Republican", McCain was at 37%.

In conclusion, Ron Paul is strong in the categories that McCain is expected to be strong in as well, whether it impacts McCain's race with Romney is yet to be seen but if turnout is strong and in Ron Paul's favor this could become a three way race.

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