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Early Mail In Ballots for Oregon Key for Hillary Clinton5/17/08
Oregon is conducting their primary by mail and there is a dead heat between Obama and Clinton among those who have already mailed their ballot, says American Research Group via the results of their poll. It is those folks mailing in their ballots within the last week that are going to give Obama his edge likely to do the inevitability factor that Obama has. But there's a chance that Clinton does better among voters who have already voted. This would be the case if a voter felt that Obama is the eventual nominee and is regretting his/her vote and kind of shy to admit the truth. If Clinton can pull within a razor thin margin of Obama in Oregon and win Kentucky by as large a margins as she had in West Virginia, it will make for a very interesting June because the pressure will mount on Clinton to drop out but the wins will still be on her side. According to the Democratic Oregon poll by American Research Group: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 57% to 39% among men (48% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 51% to 44%. Obama leads 51% to 44% among white voters (88% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters (6% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 55% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 45% among voters age 50 and older. Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th. 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. According to the Democratic Kentucky poll by American Research Group: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 21%. Clinton leads 73% to 21% among white voters (87% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 7% among African American voters (11% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 59% to 35% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 71% to 23% among voters age 50 and older. 12% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 50% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
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