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John Edwards' Support Nearly Doubles in the South if Gore Does Not RunPublished May 13, 2007 John Edwards claims that if he wins the Democratic nomination, he can win in the south. The south is an area that Democrats struggle in. Identification of Southern States. The first thing we did was identified what states we would consider to be "south" and they were the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee. Averaged Those States. And then we combined all of the states polls in our 9 southern states and averaged them and compared the results in non-southern states.
John Edwards Improves the Most. The only candidate in the top 5 to improve in southern states as opposed to non-southern states was John Edwards. But the difference was very small. The Gore Effect? From earlier research, we know that John Edwards loses a lot of support to Al Gore when polls use him as a candidate so we decided to compare the results with Gore mentioned in the poll with Gore left off.
Edwards Support Nearly Doubles Without Gore. As you can clearly see, Edwards gains 8% in the south when Gore is left off of the poll in southern states but only gains 4% in non-southern states. From 11% support in the south, he balloons up to 19%, a 73% increase. A Natural Boost for Edwards if Gore Does Not Run. Edwards is successful in the south if Gore does not run. The only caveat to all of this is the fact that Edwards is still running third despite this. A lot of polls are still including Gore and this gives people the false perception that Edwards cannot win because his support is split between himself and Gore. The moment it becomes obvious that Al Gore will not run, Edwards will get a natural boost from the would-be Gore voters and public perception will lean towards "Edwards can win!". Then you will see a lot of momentum leaning towards the Edwards camp.
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