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Fate of the Election Rests on Voter Turnout Model

10/29/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain
PA Marist 10/26-27
O+11%
55% 41%
OH Marist 10/24-26
O+6%
48% 45%
WA SV 10/25-26
O+12%
54% 42%
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National Polls

Rasmussen: Obama 50, McCain 47.
Gallup (expanded): Obama 51, McCain 44.
Diageo: Obama 49, McCain 42.
Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 44.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 46.
DailyKos: Obama 50, McCain 44.

AVERAGE: Obama 49.7, McCain 44.5 (Obama +5.2%).

McCain is only down 5% in the national poll average today and although it may seem like McCain is gaining.. that is just because the Pew Research poll that had Obama ahead by 15% is no longer a part of the cumulative average.

The likely voter model versus register voter model is causing pollsters some problems. Poll after poll has shown that Obama does well among the entire group of registered voters than he does among the smaller sliver of likely voters. If Obama can turn people out in record numbers, then he will likely win handily.

Here's what Gallup had to say about it:

Obama is up 3% in the traditional voter turnout model. Up 7% in the expanded voter turnout model and up 9% among the pool of registered voters. "Obama has a slightly larger lead among the pool of all registered voters, currently at 51% to 42%. ".

Digging down the Zogby crosstabs, here is what we found about the issue:

Those stating that they had already voted: Obama +10%. Those stating they were very likely to vote: Obama +3%. Those stating they were somewhat likely to vote: Obama +19%. As you can see, the somewhat likely voters are overwhelmingly in the tank for Obama. Whether they are being counted by other pollsters as part of the "likely voter" poll remains unclear. Heck, whether they will turn out remains to be unclear.

Zogby also found that those who registered to vote in the last 6 months are for Obama +20%, while all other voters are for Obama +2%. Evidence that Obama has been able to bring new voters into the process.

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