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Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
Presidential Candidates
Battleground States
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Polls on the Day of Iowa - Zogby Iowa Tracking, Suffolk, Franklin Pierce New Hampshire1/3/08 We are predicting Obama and Huckabee to clean up in the Iowa caucuses and the latest Zogby poll kind of affirms the conclusion that we made based on the results of the past 7 pollsters. Obama is up 4% and Huckabee is up 6%. The only issue with the latest Zogby poll and what we predicted is that John Edwards has moved into second place. If, in fact, John Edwards does well then it would be because of last minute switches to Edwards as well as 2nd preferences. John McCain is also polling below Fred Thompson according to Zogby. And if Thompson does in fact get third place, then it will contradict the prediction that we have made (McCain 15% and Thompson 10%). This shows that Fred Thompson made significant gains in the past week. Ron Paul has a very strong chance at getting third place according to the latest Zogby poll but we are predicting him in a tie for fourth place.
According to the Iowa Zogby Tracking Poll, Clinton dropped two points to 28% heading down the stretch, falling into a dead-even tie with Obama and holding just a two-point edge over Edwards, according to the latest Zogby telephone tracking survey, which was conducted using live telephone operators in the Zogby call center in Upstate New York. When second-choice voters were included in the Democratic equation, all three top vote-getters were virtually deadlocked, creating as close a race for the party’s nomination as we have seen in modern history. Obama continued to perform very well among younger likely Democratic caucus-goers, while Clinton enjoys strong support from older voters. Among men, Edwards leads, while Clinton leads among women. According to the Franklin Pierce University poll, It is interesting to track each candidate’s favorability rating in order to better understand how the contest is shaping up over time. Edwards (75%) and Obama (74%) enjoy the highest net favorability ratings in the current poll, while Clinton’s net favorability (58%) has dropped slightly since June (73%) and September (65%). The results outlined below indicate that Clinton, Obama and Edwards each have high net favorability ratings over time.
According to the Iowa Zogby Tracking Poll, On the Republican side, Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, gained a bit on Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. Huckabee cumulative three-day tracking total equaled 28% support among likely Republican caucus–goers, while Romney moved up from 25% to 26% support. Arizona Sen. John McCain remained in third place at 12%, tied with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has seen a late-breaking surge. Among Democrats, 5% were yet undecided just three days ahead of the caucuses. Among Republicans, 6% were yet unsure. Huckabee’s support spans all age groups, but he is particularly strong among voters under age 30. According to the Franklin Pierce University poll, After indicating their candidate choice, voters were then asked if their choice is firm, or if they could change their mind sometime between now and the primary election on January 8th. According to Myers, “the results clearly indicate that the Republican presidential primary remains highly fluid. With less than one week to go, 41 percent of Republican voters said that they could change their mind before the primary.” Among likely voters who support McCain, 64 percent indicated that it is a firm choice, while 36 percent indicated that they could change their mind. Among likely voters who support Romney, 54 percent indicated that it is a firm choice, while 44 percent indicated that they could change their mind. Among likely voters who support Giuliani, less than one-half (38%) indicated that their’s is a firm choice, and 62 percent indicated that they could change their mind.
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Predicted Electoral Math
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| Chinese: 奥巴马, 麦凯恩. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
