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Final Set of National and State Polls

11/4/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain
FL SUSA 10/31-11/4
O+2%
50% 47%
FL Zogby 10/31-11/3
O+2%
49% 48%
PA SUSA 10/31-11/3
O+8%
52% 43%
PA Zogby 10/31-11/3
O+8%
51% 41%
OH Zogby 10/31-11/3
O+2%
49% 47%
MI Mitchell 11/3
O+15%
54% 38%
NC ARG 10/31-11/3
TIE
49% 48%
NC Zogby 10/31-11/3
TIE
49% 50%
VA ARG 10/31-11/3
O+5%
51% 47%
VA Zogby 10/31-11/3
O+5%
52% 45%
IN Zogby 10/31-11/3
M+3%
45% 50%
MO Zogby 10/31-11/3
TIE
49% 49%
NV ARG 10/31-11/3
O+7%
52% 47%
NV Zogby 10/31-11/3
O+7%
53% 42%
WV ARG 10/31-11/3
M+11%
42% 53%
AK ARG 10/31-11/3
M+16%
43% 55%
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National Polls Obama McCain
ABC 53 44
CBS 51 42
Diageo 50 45
FOX 50 43
Gallup 55 44
IBD 52 44
Ipsos 53 46
Lake 52 47
Marist 52 43
NBC/WSJ 51 43
Rasmussen 52 46
Tarrance 50 48
Zogby 54 43
AVERAGE 51.9 44.5

Obama's 7.4% national lead remains steady.

Looks like Obama will definitely win Iowa and New Mexico, coming to within 6 EV of the presidency.

Obama's lead in Pennsylvania remains healthy, ensuring that McCain does not take any blue states.

Obama is slightly ahead in McCain's must win states of Florida and Ohio, which would give him the election.

Obama is contesting McCain's must win states of Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri -- which also would give him the election.

If Obama loses this election, it would be shocking. As shocking as it was to see Obama lose to Clinton in the New Hampshire primaries even though he was up by double digits in the polls.

Also keep in mind that 9 of 10 pollsters though Obama would fare better than he did in the Pennsylvania primaries.

Pollster Clinton Obama
Final 55 45
ARG 54 41
IADV 49 42
Mason Dixon 48 43
PPP 46 49
Rasmussen 49 44
Quinnipiac 51 44
Strategic Vision 48 41
Survey USA 50 44
Suffolk 52 42
Zogby 51 41
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The political betting odds had Obama at -1000 odds of winning this election. That means you have to put down 10 bucks to win back a buck... which means the pundits give him about a 91% chance of winning this election.

Nevertheless, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll and found that Democrats were more likely to participate in exit polls. They found that Republicans were at least twice as likely to indicate that they were not going to participate.

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