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Fox News Has McCain Dropping Nationally By 9%

9/24/08

John McCain has dropped considerably according to FOX News' national poll. He has dropped almost double digit percent since his high directly after the Republican convention. But the individual state polls still show a tight race. If we take all of the latest state polls and generate a weighted national average, Obama and McCain would only be separated by 0.2%.

As we reported yesterday, Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA's methodology in polling individuals seems to benefit John McCain. Just take a look at the New Hampshire results where McCain is up by 2% yet he is down by 3% according to Marist. You could make the argument that both polls show a statistical dead heat BUT when comparing the two polls and their 5% absolute difference, Rasmussen Reports shows a significant statistical advantage as compared to Marist College.

So is it no wonder that Rasmussen Reports has McCain winning the election?

According to the General Election national poll by FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll:

McCain held a 3-point advantage earlier this month immediately after the Republican convention (September 8-9). Before that Obama had a 3-point lead going into the Democratic convention (August 19-20). Looking back as far as a year ago, in head-to-head polling neither candidate has had a lead outside the poll's margin of sampling error. Obama's lead today is just at the outside edge of the margin of error.

The new poll finds Obama now has the edge among men (+5 percentage points) — a group that had previously either been evenly divided or slightly in McCain's column. Obama maintains his advantage among women voters (+8), while white women are a bit more likely to support McCain (+2).

According to the General Election Michigan poll by Market Research Group of Lansing:

Voters like McCain/Palin’s Experience and Judgment – But Change is a Toss –up. Voters believe the McCain/Palin ticket has more experience (61% - 31%) than the Obama/Biden ticket and they trust their judgment more (48% - 41%). But when it comes to bringing the right kind of change to Washington, the voter’s are split, – giving the Obama/Biden ticket a one-percent edge (44% - 43%).

According to the General Election South Carolina poll by Survey USA:

McCain Holds Significant Lead In Palmetto State: In an election for President of the United States in South Carolina today, 09/23/08, six weeks from the vote, Republican John McCain defeats Republican Barack Obama by 19 points, 58% to 39%, according to this latest exclusive WCSC-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. McCain takes a majority of votes among men and women, young and old, and in all regions of the state. McCain wins white voters 3:1; Obama wins black voters 10:1. 13% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 5% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama. Independents break 2:1 for McCain. McCain takes 89% of conservative votes; Obama takes 77% of liberal votes; moderates split evenly. McCain wins college graduates by 30 points, those who did not attend college by 9 points. McCain wins those with household incomes greater than $50,000 by 34 points; Obama wins low-income households by 5 points.

According to the General Election Iowa poll by Marist College:

The Economy is Front and Center: As Congress hammers out the details of a $700 billion bailout of the nation’s financial institutions, the economy is the main issue on the minds of registered voters in Iowa. 48% say the economy is the number one issue they consider when it comes to picking a candidate. Social issues like abortion or same sex marriage are most important for 9% of the Iowa electorate with health care following closely behind with 8%. Supporters of both John McCain and Barack Obama agree that the economy is the key issue in this presidential race, but it’s more important for backers of the Democratic candidate. 60% of Obama’s supporters report the economy is their top priority compared with 37% of John McCain’s. More McCain backers -- 18% -- say social issues are at the core of this election while just 3% of voters for Obama see these issues as major concerns. For 9% of registered voters in the Obama camp, health care tops their priority list followed by the war in Iraq and education.

According to the General Election New Hampshire poll by Marist College:

Economic Crisis Plays Pivotal Role in Defining Campaign’s Focus: From Wall Street to Main Street, the economy is, once again, dominating the headlines. For New Hampshire’s registered voters, the economy is the key issue in this campaign. 46% say the economy is their top priority when choosing a candidate. The war in Iraq and security against terrorism also rank highly in the minds of New Hampshire’s registered voters. Each receives 10%. More of Obama’s backers, however, are concerned about the economy than are McCain’s supporters. 52% of voters aligned with Obama say it’s their main focus compared with 39% of voters standing with McCain. Security against terrorism is a hot button issue for 19% of McCain’s supporters while just 1% of voters for Obama view it as their top priority. For 16% of voters in the Obama camp, the war in Iraq is a major concern. 5% of McCain’s allies see it as the deciding issue in this election.

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