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Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' Best Chance to Win; Statistical Analysis of Polls from the Battleground States

Published May 13, 2007

The Democrats lost control of the Whitehouse to George W. Bush by the slimmest of margins by losing Florida in 2000. They lost the 2004 election yet again but this time by a slim margin in Ohio.

The three states that have been key battleground states in the past two presidential elections have been: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

In order to win the general election in 2008, Democrats need to find someone that can win at least two of those states. So we bundled up all of the polls taken in battleground states and averaged them for each of the candidates. We also averaged the other 47 states to compare.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania from 1/1/2007
Clinton 35.9
Obama 16.4
Edwards 12.5
Biden 3.2
Richardson 1.9
Other 47 States from 1/1/2007
Clinton 33.7
Obama 20.7
Edwards 15.7
Biden 3.1
Richardson 2.8

Clinton's Lead in Battleground States. As you can see from the results, Clinton's lead in the battleground states is close to 20% whereas her lead in the other 47 states is 13%.

Edwards Does Worse in Battleground States. You could make the argument that big states vote based on the national popularity of the candidates which benefits Clinton but Edwards who was on the Vice-Presidential ticket in 2004 does worse in the battleground states.

Clinton Shows She Can Win. At this point, Clinton clearly shows that she can win the states that matter for the Democrats. And that is one of the most important things in the primary; to vote for someone that can win the general election.

Edwards and Obama Need to Prove Themselves. Many of these candidates are placing a lot of importance on the Iowa Caucus and the Nevada and New Hampshire primaries. For the lesser known candidates, that is all they need to create enthusiasm for their candidacy but for candidates like Obama and Edwards they need to do much more than perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire to prove they can win a general election.

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