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How Will the Republican Race Look After February 5th?
1/28/08
Summary: Folks are counting Huckabee out but our projection has him tied with Romney for second with McCain in the lead after February 5th. Assumptions: Huckabee sweeps the South, Romney wins Florida, and McCain takes the big states away from Giuliani. Be prepared for a brokered convention.
After Florida is over, it will no longer be about winning states but rather about winning delegates to the convention. And here is how the delegate race looks as of right now.
| Candidate |
Delegates |
| Romney |
67 |
| McCain |
38 |
| Huckabee |
26 |
| Paul |
6 |
| Giuliani |
1 |
Florida
Florida's primary will be held on January 29th, 2008, all of the state's 57 delegates will be awarded to the winner as it is a winner takes all matchup. The polls do not suggest that there is any clear winner in this race but that it appears as though Romney will take the state. (Romney +57).
Maine
21 delegates at stake are being awarded proportionally. The latest poll had Romney in the lead with only 15%. We would assume Romney will take this small state just as he took Nevada. (Romney +15, McCain +6).
New Jersey
The latest Quinnipiac poll shows that both McCain and Giuliani are locked in a tight race in this state. But with a lackluster performance in Florida, we would presume Giuliani's chances to be slim to none. Thus kinging McCain the winner of all the state's 52 delegates. (McCain +52).
New York
The latest polls here suggest that the race is tight between Giuliani and McCain but McCain will have the momentum to take the prize. All 101 delegates to be awarded to John McCain. (McCain +101).
Georgia
With Fred Thompson out of the race, Huckabee has surged into a very comfortable lead in this state. Mason Dixon and Rasmussen Reports have Huckabee winning all of the state's 72 delegates. (Huckabee +72).
California
With so many moderates, and a double digit lead for McCain, we project McCain to win most of the state's 173 delegates. (McCain +123, Romney +25, Huckabee +25).
Arizona
McCain's home state. 'Nuff said. (McCain +53).
Alabama
Huckabee and McCain are locked in a tight race here with Romney close behind. Since Huckabee has a lack of funds, we would assume the Huckabee campaign would be locked in on the southern states. And with this state awarding its delegates proportionally it would be doubtful that anyone but Huckabee would campaign here. Huckabee will win and get the majority of the state's delegates. McCain and Romney will follow. (Huckabee +25, McCain +14, Romney +9).
Connecticut
Giuliani held a 28% lead in November that has dwindled down to a 23% deficit to John McCain. (McCain +30).
Oklahoma
Huckabee holds a narrow lead over John McCain according to the latest Survey USA poll but because he will be camped out in the south, we expect Huckabee to take the prize and all of Oklahoma's 41 delegates. (Huckabee +41).
Colorado
Fred Thompson was leading in this state before he dropped out and Mitt Romney can thank him for that as he holds a 19% lead according to the latest Mason Dixon poll. Colorado has 46 delegates but awards them proportionally. (Romney +30, McCain +16).
Illinois
Giuliani was holding comfortable leads in this state until both McCain and Romney have recently overtaken him. The 70 delegates that this state has to offer are awarded proportionally. We expect them to be split close to evenly. (McCain +30, Romney +25, Giuliani +8, Huckabee +7).
Utah
Romney holds a 57% lead in this state. He will get all of the state's 36 delegates. (Romney +36).
Missouri
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has Huckabee in the lead in this state. We expect Huckabee to roll the dice in the south and carry this state and all of it's 58 delegates so long as he camps out in the south as we suspect that he will. (Huckabee +58).
Arkansas
This is Huckabee's home state and he will carry the state but because the state's delegates are awarded proportionally, he may not carry all of them. So we have Huckabee getting 27 delgates and McCain getting 7. (Huckabee +27, McCain +7).
Delaware
The latest poll has Giuliani winning this state by over 20% but the poll was taken in November when he was the front runner. We expect McCain to bounce back and overtake him in this state. (McCain +18).
Minnesota
Giuliani was leading in the latest poll taken in September 2007. Fred Thompson was very competitive in this state and Mitt Romney was only at 5%. So this is going to be tough to project. But because the state's delegates are awarded proportionally, we will give all the candidates an equal number of delegates. (McCain +14, Romney +14, Giuliani +13).
Tennessee
This is Thompson's home state and even he was only able to beat Huckabee by 1%. If Huckabee manages to win a majority, he will get all of the delegates, otherwise it will be awarded proportionally. We expect Huckabee to take most of the state's delegates. (Huckabee +30, McCain +13, Romney +12).
If it turns out the way we are loosely projecting it to, here is how the delegate counts will look like.
| Candidate |
Delegates |
| McCain |
485 |
| Huckabee |
311 |
| Romney |
290 |
1191 delegates are needed to be declared the nominee so we will be far from over. McCain will be near 50% of the awarded delegates though but this assumes that he will have wins in the large states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Now if Giuliani stays in the race, Giuliani will be able to capture a state or two and make this an extremely tight race. Huckabee will have to capture all of the Southern states for him to be where he is and with states like Kansas and Louisiana having primaries on February 9th, we expect Huckabee will be able to rebound easily.
Keep in mind that these are VERY ROUGH estimates and cannot be taken at its word. Our point was not necessarily to get an accurate measurement of what the case will be but rather the fact that this race is far from over.
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