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Poll of Polls Electoral College Estimate: Obama 340, McCain 174

10/1/08

Here are the polls that have been added since Wednesday morning. The one poll that has had the most play in the media was the one we entered in wrong! We had Obama's lead in PA to be 6% but it really is 15% according to Quinnipiac University. A major oopsy doopsy on our part. I was impressed with the 6% lead (which was Obama's pre-debate lead) but you can imagine what I think of the 15% lead. That is major with just a little bit over a month to go in the race.

Obama has ballooned out to a considerable 166 electoral vote lead in our poll of polls electoral college estimation because we changed the algorithm a bit. Instead of looking at all the polls from within the past 30 days, we looked at all the polls from within the past week.

We feel comfortable with this change because

  1. there is only a little bit over a month left
  2. there is a flurry of polls being released each day
  3. and the race is so fluid right now that it needs to have numbers that are more fluid

We also added another caveat. If Obama and McCain are within a slim margin of each other, we do not declare either candidate as the winner of the state.

State Pollster Date Obama McCain Barr Nader
ABC ABC 9/27-29 50% 46% - -
Ipsos Ipsos 9/26-29 46% 42% 1% 2%
CBS CBS 9/27-30 49% 40% - -
Time TIME 9/26-29 50% 43% - -
Misc AP 9/27-30 48% 41% - -
TX Rass 9/29 43% 52% - -
FL CNN 9/28-30 51% 47% - -
FL IADV 9/30 49% 46% - -
PA FM 9/23-28 45% 38% - -
PA* Qpac 9/27-29 54% 39% - -
GA SUSA 9/28-29 44% 52% - -
VA CNN 9/28-30 53% 44% - -
MO CNN 9/28-30 49% 48% - -
TN Rass 9/29 39% 58% - -
MN CNN 9/28-30 54% 43% - -
WI SV 9/26-28 49% 40% - -
OK SUSA 9/28-29 34% 64% - -
MS Rass 9/30 44% 52% - -
NV CNN 9/28-30 51% 47% - -
NV IADV 9/30 48% 47% - -
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In our weighted average of national polls, McCain has opened up a 3% lead. This average is far less than the national polls showing Obama up by 5-6% for a couple of reasons. First, not all the states have had updated polls since Obama has surged ahead. Second, McCain has retained his steady leads in many conservative states... i.e. look at Tennessee above where McCain still holds a 20+ lead.

Method Obama McCain
Latest Poll Per State 324 178
Poll of Polls 340 174
Weighted Nat'l Avg 45.0% 41.9%

 

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