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Maybe Georgia Isn't Safe For McCain

10/10/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain
Fox FOX 10/8-9
Nat'l Polls
46% 39%
Newsweek Newsweek 10/8-9 52% 41%
OH IADV 10/9
O+3%
49% 44%
GA IADV 10/9
M+5%
46% 49%
OR Rass 10/9
O+11%
54% 43%
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Obama is ahead in the Oregon and Ohio polls we released today but he is also within the margin of error in Georgia. The 7-day running average of polls for Georgia show that he still trails by 5%... but that means it is a state that McCain needs to defend!

McCain will have a heap of trouble in Georgia. In the primaries, all the pollsters were wrong about Georgia's results. Although they had Obama beating Clinton, they were completely wrong in what the magnitude of his victory would be. They underestimated the African-American vote and the 18-29 vote. If this happens in the general election and McCain wins every single other Bush 2004 state, he'd win by the slimmest of margins: 271 to 267.

Ohio is a Bush 2004 state and Obama is clearly ahead there so although it sounds like Georgia is a moot point... it is not. McCain will have to fight to win Ohio and that is okay but he will have to fight to defend Georgia too just in case Obama picks off some other states.

We already know that McCain is losing New Mexico and Iowa; and struggling to keep Virginia and Colorado.

With the polls the way they are right now, it is hard to see how we are not going to be calling Obama the next president of the United States.

According to the General Election Oregon poll by Rasmussen Reports:

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Oregon voters, McCain by 54%. Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, is viewed favorably by 59% while the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, earns positive reviews from 45%.

Nationally, Obama has opened a steady lead in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

Oregon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Obama 47.0 48.5 48.5 51.0 52.0 48.0 46.0 47.5 52.0 54.0
McCain 47.0 43.5 41.5 42.0 38.0 38.8 37.0 41.0 42.0 43.0
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