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McCain's High Zogby Numbers Do Not Hold Up

11/2/08

Although McCain was ahead of Obama by 1% in Zogby's one-day polling on Friday, Obama held a 10% lead in Saturday's polling. As Zogby says, "one day does not make a trend"... And the fact that the results from Saturday do not match Friday, we clearly see that Obama is in control of this election.

The reason that McCain may have polled better on Friday could be due to the fact that it was Halloween. As if those who stayed home on Halloween in order to answer the poll were more likely to vote McCain. That is just a longshot guess and an attempt on my part to try to explain how it could have been so abnormally close on Friday.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

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