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McCain May Be Inching Closer

10/26/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain
NY Marist 10/21-22
O+36%
65% 29%
IL R2000 10/20-23
O+27%
59% 35%
GA Mason 10/22-23
M+4%
43% 49%
NJ Marist 10/20-22
O+17%
56% 39%
MA Suffolk 10/20-22
O+19%
53% 34%
MO Mason 10/22-23
O+2%
45% 46%
MO R2000 10/20-22
O+2%
48% 47%
TN R2000 10/21-22
M+16%
38% 54%
MN StCloud 10/14-22
O+17%
42% 37%
WI Rass 10/23
O+10%
51% 44%
IA Mason 10/22-23
O+13%
51% 40%
IA R2000 10/19-22
O+13%
54% 39%
AR R2000 10/21-22
M+11%
41% 52%
NH UNH 10/18-22
O+15%
54% 39%
SD R2000 10/22-24
M+9%
41% 50%
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Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 44.
Gallup: Obama 52, McCain 43.
Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 44.
Hotline: Obama 50, McCain 42.
IBD: Obama 47, McCain 43.
ABC: Obama 53, McCain 44.

AVERAGE: Obama 51, McCain 43. (Obama +8%).

It is true that the state polls trail the national polls in terms of movement... Largely due to the fact that there are much fewer data points for state polls than for national polls.. But we have not observed any movement in the national polls. Obama has maintained his 7-9% lead.

Because of that, I had been maintaing that McCain is not inching closer.

But let me go back on that a little bit . All I have to do to get to that conclusion is compare today's poll margins with the weekly 7-day average... And by doing so, we can see that McCain is doing better in six polls, while Obama is doing better in none. I excluded Iowa because the two Iowa polls released today average into the 7-day average.

But because most of today's states are already heavily Obama, it does not really matter from an electoral college standpoint. Except in Missouri. McCain has turned Missouri into a pure battleground state. We may see other lean Obama states converted into battleground states and battleground states converted into lean McCain states in the upcoming couple of days.

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