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McCain's Path to Victory

11/2/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain
IL Rass 11/1
O+22%
60% 38%
PA SUSA 10/30
O+7%
51% 44%
PA Rass 11/1
O+7%
52% 46%
OH Mason 10/28-29
O+4%
45% 47%
NC R2000 10/28-30
O+1%
47% 45%
NC Mason 10/28-29
O+1%
46% 49%
VA SUSA 10/30-11/1
O+6%
50% 46%
VA Mason 10/28-29
O+6%
47% 44%
VA PPP 10/31-11/2
O+6%
52% 46%
MO Mason 10/28-29
TIE
46% 47%
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The race may be close in a whole host of states but McCain will lose this election if he does not win each and every single one of the following 9 states: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and Colorado .... provided that Obama wins Pennsylvania.

If McCain can pull out a win in Pennsylvania then that forces Obama to win 27 electoral votes in Bush 2004 states in addition to Iowa and New Mexico. Let's be blunt, if McCain wins in Pennsylvania, then that would be because Clinton's Democratic voters turned on Obama in support of McCain. And whatever dynamic that is that achieves that would similarly occur in Florida and Ohio. And ensure that McCain wins in Georgia. If that really does happen, Obama's path to 27 extra electoral votes will be dwindled down to a smaller subset of states listed above, including some very small battleground states we did not list above such as Montana and North Dakota. In fact, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, then he has received 28 more electoral votes, and won this election.

And before you think that is impossible, here is what Survey USA had to say about white voters in Virginia.. "

Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign's final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama."

Here is what Public Policy Polling had to say about Independents in Virginia:

"Obama’s lead is down..., an indication that undecided voters might be
moving toward John McCain."

According to the national polling averages we have been posting, Obama's support is at about 50%. And Dick Morris, former political adviser to Bill Clinton but now Republican talking head, says that most undecided voters will end up voting for McCain. He states that the race is about whether or not a voter wants to vote for Obama or not. And if said voter remains undecided and not yet convinced of Obama, they will not be by the time the election comes around. According to his theory, if Obama continues to remain at the 50% mark, that could lead to a tightening in the race.

Here is a clip of him on Bill O'Reilly's show.

 

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