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Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
Presidential Candidates
Battleground States
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Rudy Giuliani Slips - Mitt Romney Gains But So Does ... Ron Paul11/13/07 The latest Zogby Republican poll showed a significant drop of 9% for Rudy Giuliani when the latest poll is compared with an April poll of the same field of candidates.
Giuliani leads among both men and women, holding a 32% to 22% edge over Romney among women and a 24% to 17% edge among men. Ron Paul wins 12% support among Republican men, but wins just 2% support among GOP women. Zogby is reporting on Fred Thompson's gain in this poll but we do not claim that to be big news because Fred Thompson was not an announced candidate in April so his poll numbers growing in 7 months of time is not surprising. Besides, the latest Mason Dixon poll had Fred Thompson at 23% in this state within the 5.1% margin of error of Rudy Giuliani who was at 28% in that poll. So sorry you Fred Heads, you get no praise from me in this article. Most of the praise should be reserved for Mitt Romney. This is yet another poll that shows Romney within striking distance of yet another state! All you Romney supporters are banking on strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire to really catapult his campaign and it will. So long as he is within striking distance of course. Candidates like Mike Huckabee who is at 5% may not see a big enough bump from performing well in Iowa and New Hampshire. But even in the case of Romney, if you were to compare this Zogby poll with other Nevada polls, his gain in this poll is also not that newsworthy -- in fact if we were to believe the other polls he really dropped in the poll. The polls for Nevada have been all over the place. The America Research Group showed a dead heat for first place between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney at 31% and 30% respectively in a poll that had a middle date of 10/7/07. Then Mason Dixon's poll showed Romney was at 17% well behind Giuliani and Thompson with a middle date three days later, 10/10/07. An August poll by Research 2000 showed Mitt Romney in first place and comfortably ahead of Rudy Giuliani by 10 points. And May and June polls showed him from almost within the margins of error from first place. Of course results vary by pollster but for Zogby to focus all of their reporting on how the polls have moved between April and now is a bit irresponsible without referencing the results of other pollsters. But of course, pollsters do not want to bring up the results of other polls because it could question the credibility of their own. Other polls have shown Romney doing much better than this poll so they should not focus their attention on how well Romney has been doing either. The other story worthy of reporting is how Ron Paul is sitting above Huckabee and just under McCain in this poll at 7%. That should be major news for the Ron Paul campaign as not only does it show he is gaining traction nationally but that his campaign is slowly establishing credibility and viability in states other than New Hampshire. Viable candidacies are those that can use successful runs in Iowa and New Hampshire to catapult them to the nomination. Without strong polling numbers in other states, voters were once justified in questioning Ron Paul's viability but at 7% in a state like Nevada; they have no right to talk anymore. That is of course if Ron Paul continues to carry his momentum. This Nevada poll is a good start. There also exists a strong possibility that these numbers could be inflated thanks to his appearance on the Jay Leno show and the November 5th donation drive in which he raised $4.2 Million. The fact that Ron Paul polls at 12% among men but only 2% among women in this poll could be a testament to that as men are more likely to be swayed by such a thing. We are making an assumption founded on no scientific proof but what leads us to that opinion is polls such as how Stephen Colbert does better among males and the youth. Then again, Ron Paul has been traditionally polling stronger among men and women according to the latest polls by Rasmussen and Quinnipiac two pollsters that openly post such results. The last Rasmussen New Hampshire poll showed Ron Paul's support among men to be 7% and for women at only 1%. Nevertheless, the candidate that should be getting all the headlines right now is Ron Paul at least in this Nevada poll. By the way, a lot of you folks have been questioning us as to how Ron Paul did in the Florida poll as the newspaper that paid for the poll (St. Petersburg Times) did not even mention his name in their article. Well, Ron Paul was at just 2% and tied with Alan Keyes. The results of which will be on our homepage within a few hours if it is not already there (depending on when you check this). For the results of all the past Nevada polls archived here, visit our Nevada page. Or check the following table for a rundown of monthly averages in the state for each of the candidates leading up to this Zogby poll.
To see how Zogby reported the results, go to Zogby.
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Predicted Electoral Math
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