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National Polls - California, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

12/20/07

There were several interesting items we found in the polls today. First, the CBS News poll for South Carolina showed Obama is actually winning the female vote against Hillary Clinton 39% to 31%. Here is what CBS said about it:

"Much of the women's vote for Obama is driven by black women, who support him in strong numbers. They make up two-thirds of all black Democratic primary voters, and black women constitute 60% of all women Democratic Primary voters in this poll." - CBS

Despite that, Survey USA shows Clinton would win the female vote 50% to 33%.

As you can see here, Obama is within just a few percentage points from Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Democratic Candidate NBC Zogby Misc CA IA NH SC SC
Hillary Clinton 45% 40% 47% 36% 31% 31% 41% 34%
Barack Obama 23% 32% 23% 22% 27% 28% 39% 35%
John Edwards 13% 13% 13% 13% 22% 18% 17% 13%
Joe Biden 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% - -
Bill Richardson 2% 3% 4% 3% 9% 8% - -
Mike Gravel - 1% - - - - - -
Chris Dodd 1% 1% - 1% - 1% - -
Dennis Kucinich 4% 2% 2% 2% - 3% - -
Other(vol.) 8% 5% 8% 20% 3% - 3% -
Details Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

The second most interesting thing here is the fact that Ron Paul is in a statistical tie for third place in Iowa according to the ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll.

It is not supported by the other Iowa poll we are releasing today which shows John McCain in a strong third place position by Rasmussen Reports. Could it be because of the Des Moines Register endorsement? In fact, Rasmussen Reports shows John McCain is only 4% behind Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.

Republican Candidate NBC Zogby Misc IA IA NH SC
Rudy Giuliani 20% 23% 22% 8% 8% 13% 12%
John McCain 14% 12% 15% 6% 14% 27% 11%
Fred Thompson 11% 13% 9% 9% 8% 3% 10%
Mitt Romney 20% 16% 16% 27% 27% 31% 20%
Mike Huckabee 17% 22% 24% 35% 28% 11% 28%
Ron Paul 4% 4% 6% 8% 6% 7% -
Tom Tancredo 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% -
Duncan Hunter 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - -
Other(vol.) 11% 9% 7% 5% - - -
Details Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

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