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National Polls Not Tightening Despite Reports

10/25/08

All of the Republican punditocracy is on the side that the race is tightening.

They offer up a couple of reason they believe the race is tighter.

 

  1. AP Poll has McCain down by just 1%.
  2. The IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and they have McCain down by a few percentage points.
  3. McCain is closing in on Obama a bit in the Gallup tracking polls.

That may be true. But what about the fact that CBS has Obama ahead by 13%? Or that Obama is extending his lead in Zogby's tracking poll? Zogby shows Obama's lead has gone from 4% lead to 10% in the past week.

And the average of all polls still has Obama considerably ahead -- almost 8%.

Newsweek: Obama 53, McCain 41.
Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 45.
Gallup: Obama 51, McCain 44.
Zogby: Obama 51, McCain 41.
ABC: Obama 53, McCain 44.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 46.
TIPP: Obama 46, McCain 42.
CBS: Obama 52, McCain 39.
FOX: Obama 49, McCain 40.
AP: Obama 44, McCain 43.

AVERAGE: Obama 50.0, McCain 42.5 (Obama +7.5%).

So despite the fact that the punditocracy can drum up three reasons to say the race is tightening, we can drum up even more reasons to say either the race is steady or that Obama is gaining.

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