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Democratic Race in New Hampshire Trending Towards Obama1/6/08
Barack Obama holds a double digit lead according to the American Research Group poll, is tied according to Research 2000/Concord Monitor and CNN, and is down 7% according to Suffolk University. But pay close attention to the dates of the polls. Since the Iowa Caucus was held on January 3rd, part of that Suffolk University poll would be analyzing Democratic sentiment before the results of the Iowa caucus was even known. So with these four polls, we are certain that the momentum is trending towards Obama but with two days left before the New Hampshire Primary, whether voters re-evaluate the situation or continue on with the Obama momentum is yet to be seen. According to the Research 2000 poll, Among likely Democratic primary voters, Barack Obama was the choice of 34 percent of those surveyed and Hillary Clinton was the choice of 33 percent, suggesting the race is a virtual dead heat. John Edwards was next at 23 percent, followed by Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. Obama's one-point edge shows up among men (32-31) and women (36-35). He trails Clinton among registered Democrats (35-30 with Edwards at 27) but leads among undeclared voters (41-29-17). According to the CNN poll, "Both Obama and Edwards appear to have benefited from the Iowa caucuses. Each picked up three points in New Hampshire. Clinton lost one point, since our last poll taken before the caucuses," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider. The biggest shift appears to be on electability. Thirty-six percent of likely Democratic New Hampshire primary voters now think Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican presidential nominee. That's down nine points from CNN's last Granite State survey, which was conducted December 27 to 30. Obama is just behind Clinton when it comes to electability, at 35 percent, a virtual tie. Obama has gained 13 points since CNN's pre-caucus poll. "Obama got something else out of winning Iowa: a big boost in his perceived electability. A week ago, Clinton led Obama by better than two to one when New Hampshire Democrats were asked which candidate has the best chance of beating the Republican in November. Obama's victory in an overwhelmingly white state may have resolved some doubts about an African-American candidate's electability," Schneider said. According to the American Research Group poll, Barack Obama leads John Edwards among men 42% to 21%, with 19% for Hillary Clinton. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 35% to 31%, with 20% for Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among Democrats 34% to 32%, while Obama leads Edwards among undeclared voters (independents) 49% to 21%. For a complete list of the 2008 New Hampshire Primary polls, visit our New Hampshire page.
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