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North Dakota Enters into Battleground Status

10/13/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr Nader
ABC ABC 10/8-11
Nat'l Polls
53% 43% - -
Democracy Corps DC 10/8-12 50% 40% 3% 2%
PA Marist 10/5-8
O+13%
53% 41% - -
OH Marist 10/5-8
O+2%
49% 45% - -
MO SUSA 10/11-12
O+8%
51% 43% - -
ND Forum 10/6-8
O+2%
45% 43% - -
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Gallup Tracking: Obama 52, McCain 44.
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50, McCain 45.
Reuters Tracking: Obama 48, McCain 44.
Hotline Tracking: Obama 48, McCain 42.
Battleground Tracking: Obama 51, McCain 43.
ABC: Obama 53, McCain 43.
Democracy Corps: Obama 51, McCain 42.

AVERAGE: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Obama +7%)

Method Obama McCain
Latest Poll Per State 362 166
Poll of Polls 347 166
Survey USA 273 265
Rasmussen Reports 344 194
Quinnipiac 269 128
CNN 283 133
American Research Group 316 222
Insider Advantage 214 160
Research 2000 215 160
Strategic Vision 258 128
Public Policy Polling 239 124
Mason Dixon 186 134
Zogby 271 240
Weekly National Average 50.3% 40.8%

Obama continues to maintain a huge lead in Pennsylvania.

There were some early polls that suggested Obama could make North Dakota competitive but it was not until recently that we really believed it could be possible.

According to the General Election North Dakota poll by Forum Poll MSUM:

The poll indicates McCain’s once-comfortable lead in North Dakota has melted away as Obama is the widely favored choice among voters who consider the economy the most pressing issue.

McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, is shown as neither helping nor hurting the Republican among North Dakota voters. Eighty percent of those polled said McCain’s selection of Palin as running mate had little or no influence on their choice of primary candidate.

If Obama defeats McCain in North Dakota’s Nov. 4 election, it would be a historic loss for the Republicans, who have failed to carry the state in only three presidential elections since 1916, most recently Lyndon Johnson’s defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964.

McCain fails to appeal to the Republican base and that is the reason the pollster gives for McCain's drop in North Dakota. So then what? He lost the Independents because of the poor economy and now he is losing his base.

McCain needs to distance himself from George Bush and his failed "economic policies" and be the "Independent President" BUT in doing so, he will likely lose his base.

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Predicted Electoral Math

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