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Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
Presidential Candidates
Battleground States
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Obama's Advantage Seems to Be Slipping in Ohio10/19/08
According to the General Election Ohio poll by NBC Mason Dixon: Ohio -- the state that decided the last election -- McCain has a slim one-point edge over Obama, 46%-45%.
According to the General Election Minnesota poll by Star Tribune: Obama's consistent lead in Minnesota in recent weeks mirrors his sustained edge nationwide and in several battleground states. The Gallup organization's most recent national daily tracking poll, released Saturday, showed Obama ahead of McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. Obama also has pulled ahead in a handful of critical states such as Missouri and Virginia (by about six percentage points), Florida (about four points) and North Carolina (about two points). Also, in two neighboring states that both campaigns have targeted -- Wisconsin and Iowa -- the race looks very much like it does in Minnesota, with Obama holding leads of more than 10 points in recent polls. Just as it is nationally, the bedrock of Obama's support in Minnesota can be found among likely voters' worries about the wobbling economy. It is far and away the most important issue in the campaign, cited by half of Minnesota's likely voters. That's three times more than the next issue -- taxes and government spending -- cited by just 16 percent of respondents. Asked which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, they favor Obama over McCain by a crushing 55 percent to 35 percent.
According to the General Election Wisconsin poll by NBC Mason Dixon: Wisconsin -- a state the Democrats have won in the last two presidential elections -- Obama has a comfortable 12-point lead, 51%-39%.
According to the General Election West Virginia poll by Public Policy Polling: A glimpse at what West Virginians view as their top issue gives an indication to the difficulty Obama might have in winning there. Right now in almost every battleground state more than 60% of the electorate lists the economy as its top issue, something that very much plays to the Democrats’ advantage. But only 54% do in West Virginia, with moral and family values placing second at 15%, a much higher share than it is pulling anywhere else. McCain’s advantage with those values voters? 87-7. “The Obama campaign has only just begun to make a real investment in West Virginia,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “So these numbers could definitely tighten up over the last couple weeks of the campaign, but for now it appears John McCain is likely to repeat the success George W. Bush had in the state in 2000 and 2004.” For Obama’s numbers to improve he is going to have to significantly increase the share of the Democratic vote he is receiving in the state. Right now he leads McCain with voters in his own party just 62-29, at the same time that McCain is nailing down 85% of the Republican vote. McCain also has a strong advantage with independents, 53-36. Another thing holding Obama back from greater success in West Virginia is that he is actually faring worse with older voters in the state than John Kerry did in 2004. Among those surveyed, 45% said they supported Kerry but only 41% say they support Obama.
According to the General Election West Virginia poll by NBC Mason Dixon: West Virginia -- a state Republicans have won in the last two presidential elections, but the Obama campaign is now targeting -- McCain is up six points, 47%-41%.
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Predicted Electoral Math
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| Chinese: 奥巴马, 麦凯恩. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
