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Obama Still Has Largest Electoral College Lead Ever: 352 to 186

8/1/08

Candidate PEW CA TX NC KY
Pollster Pew PPIC Rass R2000 R2000
Date 7/23-27 7/8-22 7/30/08 7/28-30 7/28-30
Barack Obama 47% 50% 41% 43% 35%
John McCain 42% 35% 50% 47% 56%
Details Link Link Link Link Link
Candidate KY ID MT
Pollster Rass R2000 Rass
Date 7/29/08 7/28-30 7/29
Barack Obama 39% 37% 44%
John McCain 49% 53% 45%
Details Link Link Link

Based on the latest polls, the electoral college assessment has shown Obama to have the largest lead ever.. up 166 electoral votes and it seems to be sticking at least for the past couple of days.

Blumenthal's estimates on his own website has Obama up by almost 140 electoral votes but with 107 toss-up states.

And on Tanenbaum's website, Obama is up by about 120. This suggests that my numbers are slanted towards Obama a bit more than the others... likely because I am not doing "toss-ups" right now. Which means I am giving states to Obama that may have ordinarily gone as a tossup.

Of the polls we see here.. Montana and North Carolina are the only tossup states. I show McCain as ahead by 1% even though most polling compilation websites report it as dead even. That is because they are reporting the results that factor into account "leaners" from those that stated unsure or third party. By reporting leaners, they suppress the undecided and third party support. The way I list it out is more fair to the third party candidates in my humble opinion. It is too bad that Barr and Nader are still being left off of the polls.

Here is how Barr and Nader are polling in the minimal number of states that they are included in.

Bob Barr
[min, max]
Florida
[1, 1]
Michigan
[2, 2]
Georgia
[3, 5]
North Carolina
[5, 5]

 

Ralph Nader
[min, max]
California
[5, 5]
Michigan
[3, 3]

 

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