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Obama is Widely Accepted As the Next President

11/3/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr
FL Qpac 10/27-11/2
O+2%
47% 45% -
FL Zogby 10/30-11/2
O+2%
48% 46% -
FL PPP 10/31-11/2
O+2%
50% 48% -
PA Qpac 10/27-11/2
O+8%
52% 42% -
PA Zogby 10/30-11/2
O+8%
54% 40% -
PA PPP 10/31-11/2
O+8%
53% 45% -
OH Qpac 10/27-11/2
O+4%
50% 43% -
OH UCO 10/29-11/2
O+4%
52% 46% -
OH Zogby 10/30-11/2
O+4%
50% 44% -
OH SUSA 10/30-11/2
O+4%
48% 46% -
OH PPP 10/31-11/2
O+4%
50% 48% -
GA PPP 10/31-11/2
M+3%
48% 50% 2%
NC Zogby 10/30-11/2
TIE
48% 49% -
NC PPP 10/31-11/2
TIE
50% 49% 1%
VA Zogby 10/30-11/2
O+5%
51% 45% -
IN Zogby 10/30-11/2
M+1%
44% 49% -
MO Zogby 10/30-11/2
TIE
47% 46% -
MO SUSA 10/30-11/2
TIE
48% 48% -
MN SUSA 10/30-11/1
O+3%
49% 46% -
NV Zogby 10/30-11/2
O+5%
51% 43% -
MT PPP 10/31-11/2
M+3%
48% 47% -
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It is starting to be accepted as fact by the polling community that Obama will win this election. Gallup's FINAL national poll numbers are: Obama 55%, McCain 44%. Gallup says "the trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support".

Zogby had something similar to say: "Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. "

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling was pretty darn confident that Obama was going to carry Virginia and then end up carrying the election. Here is what they said: "it
still seems pretty certain that he’ll win here, and there aren’t a lot of scenarios where he wins Virginia and doesn’t take the Presidency along with him".

Yesterday, we pointed out that McCain's path to victory was very heavily dependent on the race in Pennsylvania. Zogby has him down by 14%. Quinnipiac has him down by 10%. Public Policy Polling has him down by 8%. Yikes! However, keep in mind, there were polls over the past couple of days that had him as close as 4%.

Could the Bradley effect be making an appearance in the Pennsylvania polls?

McCain is barely breaking even against Obama among white voters in Pennsylvania says these three polls.

Pennsylvania poll by Quinnipiac University:

  • White voters split 47 - 47 percent, while black voters back Obama 95 - 1 percent.

Pennsylvania poll by Reuters Zogby:

  • Obama trails McCain by just three points among white voters.

Pennsylvania poll by Public Policy Polling:

  • Obama is running just behind McCain among white voters, 50-48. His 91-9 lead with African Americans more than makes up for that and gives him his overall commanding lead.

Meanwhile, in other states, McCain's support among white voters has either grown from a dead heat or stayed at a dead heat.

Florida poll by Quinnipiac University:

  • White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent.

Florida poll by Reuters Zogby:

  • McCain has a 13-point lead with white voters.

Ohio poll by Quinnipiac University:

  • McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent.

Ohio poll by Public Policy Polling:

  • Obama has lost ground particularly among white voters.

Virginia poll by Reuters Zogby:

  • McCain increased his lead among white voters, and is now up, 61%-34%. He needs more than that to overcome Obama's 94% among African-Americans.

There were five Ohio polls released today, all of which show Obama ahead. McCain just has to hope white voters turn on Obama in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Because if that happens, then the polls will be wrong. He also has to hope for older voters coming out to the polls in large numbers and younger voters staying home.

Even if white voters turn on Obama, his campaign is banking on all of the early voting support that they have already received. For example, Obama is doing incredibly well in Montana! "Obama’s definite advantage is that he has banked a 61-35 lead with those who have already voted" says Public Policy Polling.

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