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Poll Results With McCain Must-Win States Highlighted

10/28/08

The highlighted rows represent those battleground states that must go McCain's way.

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr Nader
FL LAT 10/25-27
O+2%
50% 43% - -
FL Rass 10/26
O+2%
51% 47% - -
PA IADV 10/26
O+9%
51% 42% - -
PA Rass 10/27
O+9%
53% 46% - -
OH LAT 10/25-27
O+6%
49% 40% - -
OH SUSA 10/26-27
O+6%
49% 45% - -
OH Rass 10/26
O+6%
49% 45% - -
GA IADV 10/27
M+3%
47% 48% 1% -
NJ SV 10/24-26
O+16%
53% 38% - -
NC NBC 10/23-25
TIE
47% 47% - -
NC Rass 10/26
TIE
48% 49% - -
VA Rass 10/26
O+7%
51% 47% - -
MO Rass 10/26
TIE
48% 47% - -
WI SV 10/24-26
O+10%
50% 41% - -
CO IADV 10/26
O+8%
53% 45% - -
CO Rass 10/26
O+8%
50% 46% - 1%
AR Rass 10/27
M+11%
44% 54% - -
MS Rass 10/27
M+8%
45% 53% - -
NV Suffolk 10/23-27
O+6%
50% 40% - -
NV Rass 10/27
O+6%
50% 46% - -
NH NBC 10/23-25
O+13%
50% 39% - -
NH UNH 10/25-27
O+13%
58% 33% - -
MT NBC 10/23-25
M+4%
44% 48% - -
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In our previous article regarding what McCain needed to do to win the election, we left off one important item from our list... That McCain needed to win Ohio. That was oversight on my part.

So here is now the list of 10 things McCain needs to do to win the election. I have updated the numbers as per the more recent polls of the day.

What McCain Needs!

  1. Gain 1.8% in Florida.
  2. Gain 5.4% in Ohio.
  3. Maintain his 3.9% lead in Georgia.
  4. Gain 1.9% in North Carolina.
  5. Gain 2.0% in Indiana.
  6. Gain 1.7% in Missouri.
  7. Gain 4.6% in Nevada.
  8. Edge a little bit ahead in Montana and North Dakota.
  9. Turn this around in Virginia by gaining 7.5%.
  10. Then either win Pennsylania or one of the following three states (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico).

National Poll Averages:

Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46.
Gallup (expanded): Obama 51, McCain 44.
Diageo: Obama 50, McCain 42.
Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 45.
ABC: Obama 52, McCain 45.
Ipsos: Obama 50, McCain 45.
IBD: Obama 48, McCain 44.
Pew: Obama 53, McCain 38.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 46.

AVERAGE: Obama 50.3, McCain 43.9. (Obama +6.4%)

McCain is doing better than the 7-8% deficit he had a couple of days ago but not by much. We fathom that he needs to gain about 4-5% nationally to really make this race tight on a state by state basis.

McCain's closing argument is going to be the key as to whether or not he makes any gains or not. Here are his two most apparent closing arguments:

  1. Obama wants to be your Redistrubtion-of-wealth in chief, i.e. a socialist.
  2. When Biden said Obama will be tested by the terrorists, it was an invitation and/or America's role as a superpower is over.
  3. We must avoid giving the Democrats a blank check control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency.

Watch the Barbara West interview of Joe Biden.

 

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