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Pollster Justifies Why it is OK to Exclude Ron Paul from Texas Poll

July 22, 2007

Ron Paul Excluded From Texas State Polls

The article that made this website famous was the one about the systematic exclusion of Ron Paul in every poll, specifically in those states that he would do well (Link). This is no longer as true as it used to be two months ago when I wrote that article but there is still no scientific Texas poll released with Ron Paul included.

I received this email from a guy bashing me for leaving Ron Paul out of the Texas state polls.

I recently visited this site to see the polls for my home state of Texas. I noticed a flurry of negative comments on the page in regards to the lack of Ron Paul in your polls. What do you think about these comments?

As a constituent of district 14, I am represented by Ron Paul, and have long had a favorable view of his efforts. I like him not because I'm from the same town as he, but because I agree with him in principle on the proper role of government. When do you think you might be featuring him in the polls?

Thank you,

Alan

We Do Not Do These Polls Ourselves

Here is my response.

Alan,

We do not do our own polls. We publish the polls from other polling organizations.. I have talked to pollsters about Ron Paul (even those that do Texas) and I have been told that as a congressmen Ron Paul will have very little name recognition in the state and will not do well... This is what I was told.....

USAEP

His response was very apologetic in how he branded me as censoring Ron Paul. He was relieved to know that I was not the one doing the polls and even more relieved that I had inquired about it. But that does not change the reality of the systematic censorship of Ron Paul.

My Conversation with CEO of Coveted Polling Organization

I had a conversation with the CEO of a major polling organization within the state of Texas. They are a nationally coveted and respected polling agency that has worked with many political campaigns in the past. And to put icing on the cake, they specialize in Republican candidates!

Shortcomings of Polling

The first thing I did was ask him about his methodology of polling. He replied that he has automated callers to call your homes. The numbers he uses are from voting lists and he agreed to the following shortcomings:

He cannot poll those that have never voted before. (Many Ron Paul supporters have never voted before.)
He must ignore those that were never eligible to vote before (18-21). (This age group is likely to favor Ron Paul). Historically, 17% of primary voters are between 18-29. But from a polling perspective are probably only polled at a 10% rate.
Although they make a conscience effort to restrict the number of voters to each area of the state, they cannot restrict the number of voters to a specific ethnicity. This could lead to inaccurate polling of candidates that appeal to a certain ethnic minority like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson.
They cannot poll anyone that has recently switched

For the most part, this has not mattered so much in the past because the group that is left out is still a small minority of the total voting population. And if you were to poll them separately, their results usually do not differ by a large amount for or against any candidate.

How Can Ron Paul Get 0% in Texas?

If there is no polling data on a candidate in a specific poll on our website, it is either because a) he/she was not an option or b) he/she got 0%. I asked him if Ron Paul was included in the Texas polls that I listed on my website and his response was that he was not sure.

I explained that Ron Paul must not have been in the statewide poll because it was impossible for him to register 0% support. He said that I was WRONG. According to him, "congressmen are rarely known outside of their districts and therefore poll poorly". He went on to give me a laundry list of other Republican congressmen that ran to be Senator or Governor and dictated out their poor statewide polling numbers. I was not very impressed because of the following reasons:

Ron Paul is a presidential candidate and cannot be lumped together with any other Republican congressmen barely in the news.
Ron Paul's online popularity boosts his exposure.
I can guarantee that Ron Paul is popular in Texas based on the Internet traffic that I receive from the Lone Star State.

Pollster Explains Ron Paul is Unknown Outside His District

He countered that by saying Duncan Hunter, a current congressmen in California, polls very poorly in California because he is a relatively unknown presidential candidate outside of his district.

I agree with him in most respects but still feel that Ron Paul is an exception to this rule. For once I want to see a pollster that is willing to put his name as a potential candidate in the poll! At least Duncan Hunter was listed, right?

I told him to check out all of the great Ron Paul posts on our website especially those on the Texas page that express disgust at the exclusion of their candidate. He checked it out and said, "that's interesting".

It is more likely than not that the pollster believes what he is telling me. He knew the political world better than anyone I have ever talked to. The problem with him was that he likely did not understand the power of the Internet either because he is stubborn or because of his age.

Possible Profit Incentive to Censor Ron Paul

There is the contrarion belief of "they are afraid of Ron Paul" that many of you visitors to my website believe. Let me tell you why that could make sense.

Pollsters earn little from publishing freebie polls for you Internet junkies, they make the bulk of their money working with political candidates that are running for office. Candidates utilize pollsters to see what demographics they need to appeal to, etc. We all know that polls can influence public opinion. So let's say a specific rogue candidate was to do surprisingly well in a poll, it could generate buzz around his candidacy and take it away from another faction. And if said faction financially supports the pollster, he may choose to go elsewhere, etc. Thus making it a financial decision to conveniently leave off candidates.

I have no doubt that the national polls are accurate based on the fact that they are done by the top notch media conglomerates (ABC, CBS, CNN) that are not financially bound to political candidates but if you look through the state polls, you will see Strategic Vision (unrelated to the pollster described above) peppered throughout. This is what is posted on their website:

Our team of experts works on races from school boards to the presidency. No race is too big or too small. Our CEO, David E. Johnson, is sought after by the media for his comprehensive analysis and knowledge of the political world. His insight and expertise is the foundation upon which our clients' campaigns are built. >> Strategic Vision

I browsed through their clients list and it does not show who they are working for. But it is commonly known that they are the strongest with Republican candidates. Could it be that Texas polls are done with less frequency than every other big state because they want to censor Ron Paul so as to keep from hindering "their candidate"? That is the contrarion view and I personally don't agree with it but thought I would put it out there for you all to nibble on.

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