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Pre-NH Polls Nationally and in South Carolina for Obama, Clinton, & Edwards - Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen, Survey USA1/8/08
Since Iowa and New Hampshire are packed in so close together, these polls can be considered post Iowa polls and/or pre New Hampshire polls. But no matter how you slice it, the results out of New Hampshire will have an impact on these polls so we are labelling them pre-NH polls. Nationally, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton while Huckabee has surged into a strong lead with McCain and Giuliani behind. In South Carolina, Obama is pulling around 60% of the black vote and has the SC primary all but notched up after he wins in New Hampshire which we know he will. According to Gallup's National Poll, Iowa winner Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton. Both now have 33% of the vote. This represents a 6-point gain since December 2007 for Obama and a 12-point loss for Clinton. John Edwards has gained 5 points since December, moving from 15% to 20% support among Democrats. Edwards is now closer to the front-runner among Democrats than he has been at any point since Gallup began tracking the Democratic race more than a year ago. This is also the first time since June that Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead over the rest of her competitors. She had led by 27 points as recently as mid-November. According to Fox's New Hampshire poll, Obama’s support has also increased among young voters, although women are still slightly more likely to back Clinton. Obama edged out Clinton by 5 points among women in Iowa. Even with the primary only two days away, 12 percent of those voting in the Democratic primary are undecided, and another 21 percent say they may still change their mind about which candidate to vote for on Tuesday. Almost all of Obama’s supporters are confident he would be able to beat the Republican in November — 84 percent say so, up from 71 percent that thought so last month. Confidence that Clinton can win in November has stayed steady: 77 percent today and 79 percent in December. The most important candidate attribute to Democrats in the Granite State is the ability to "bring about needed change," with almost four in 10 putting this above the having the "right experience" (24 percent) and "understands average Americans" (20 percent). "Change" voters strongly back Obama (+26 points), while "experience" voters largely support Clinton (+37 points). According to Rasmussen's South Carolina poll, In South Carolina, Obama now attracts 58% of the African-American vote, up from 50% in December. Earlier in the year, Obama and Clinton split this important constituency fairly evenly. Now while Obama enjoys a 2-to-1 advantage over Clinton among African-American voters, white voters are split fairly evenly between three candidates--it’s Clinton 32%, Edwards 29%, and Obama 27%. For Obama, that reflects a 13-point improvement from the previous survey. Obama leads by 17 points among men and eight points among women. Eighty percent (80%) have a favorable opinion of Obama, 79% say the same about Clinton, and 75% offer a positive assessment of Edwards. Those figures include 54% with a Very Favorable assessment of Obama. Forty-five percent (45%) are that positive about Clinton and 30% say the same about Edwards. According to Survey USA's South Carolina poll, There is across-the board movement away from Clinton to Obama. Among women: Clinton had led by 17 points, now trails by 14 points. Among blacks, Obama had led by 20 points, now leads by 46. Among white voters, Obama had been 3rd, is now 2nd, tied with Edwards, the two of them 9 and 10 points back of Clinton. Among Moderates, Obama was tied, now leads by 23. Among voters age 65+, Clinton had been at 61% a month ago, 40% today. In the Low Country, Clinton had led by 13, now trails by 16. Upstate, Obama had been tied, now leads by 16. In the Midlands, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 26. South Carolina Democrats name the Economy as the issue the next President should focus on ahead of all others. Among voters focused on the Economy, Obama leads Clinton 2:1. Among voters focused on Health Care, Clinton leads Obama 41% to 37%. One quarter of SC likely voters say they could change their mind before the SC Primary. Of those who may change their mind, Edwards' support is the weakest, Obama's the strongest. Among voters who made up their mind AFTER the Iowa Caucuses , Obama leads Clinton 63% to 13%.
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