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Fundraising Success Suggests Ron Paul Could Get 15%, What are the Republicans Going to Do About It?

11/6/07

The latest CNN National Republican poll is good news for a bunch of candidates. Rudy Giuliani continues to lead nationally with 28% but there are four other candidates in double digits. Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Thompson have each being doing great nationally as they are at 10%, 11%, 16%, and 19% respectively.

But the other candidates are also boasting positive gains, i.e. Ron Paul is at 5%, Duncan Hunter in his best ever national poll result is at 4% and Tom Tancredo is at 3%.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll
11/3/2007
w/o Newt Gingrich
Margin of Error = 4.4% [?]
Rudy Giuliani 28%
Fred Thompson 19%
John McCain 16%
Mitt Romney 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Ron Paul 5%
Duncan Hunter 4%
Tom Tancredo 3%
Unsure 5%

We have all known this for quite some time -- the Republican nomination is wide open but what we have not known is that Ron Paul has a very serious opportunity to play spoiler.

Here are the list of reasons.

Fundraising

Ron Paul's campaign claims to have raised around $4 million dollars yesterday. He earned that in one day! Donations obviously come from real people who support Ron Paul. And the data that we have tabulated proves that the more donors a candidate has, the better he polls in that state.

On October 2, 2007; we looked at how many donors Ron Paul had per million residents, sourced from RonPaulGraphs.com.

We can only look at those states with which we have polls for but the five states Ron Paul had the most donors per population were: New Hampshire, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, and Connecticut. His poll averages in those states are 3.58%.

The big middle group of states in which he has a modest number of donors per population were: California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Utah, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia. He averages 2.73% in those states.

As for the bottom slew of states in which he has the least number of donors per population: Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, New York, and Alabama, he averages 2.04% in those states.

This is kind of an obvious correlation -- the more donors you have the more support you have. But it is something the mainstream media has not reported widely and honestly enough. Ron Paul is getting all this money yet they denounce Paul's candidacy to not being as serious as a Romney, Giuliani, McCain, or Thompson.

We purposely took our data before the money bomb campaign Ron Paul's supporters cooked up.

Ron Paul - Straw Polls at Around 20%

We tabulated all of the straw polls together from USAStrawPolls.com and counted up the number of votes each of the candidates received. Although Mitt Romney was the eventual winner with the most votes (due to his strong win in the Utah Straw Poll), Ron Paul did very well. We calculated it out to be 18%.

So Ron Paul has received 18% of all the straw poll votes cast in the entire nation? This includes Republican Party sponsored straw polls. Where has this tidbit of information been in the news? Keep in mind that this figure takes into account all of the straw polls we have in our database and includes plenty of straw polls that were taken before Ron Paul's campaign took off.

Ron Paul's campaign has been keeping track of their results separately. [source]

40% of the GOP Align Closer With Ron Paul on the War in Iraq

Rasmussen Reports polled voters on how they felt about troop withdrawal and the war in Iraq. 15% of the GOP wants troops withdrawn immediately and another 25% believe troops should be home within a year. That is 40% of the GOP. 78% of the Democrats felt the same way. The crosstabbed data we show here is provided to premium members.

October 23-24, 2007 [source] When it comes to the War in Iraq, should the United States withdraw all combat troops immediately, bring the combat troops home within a year, or stay until the mission is completed?
Response TOTAL GOP Dem Other Men Women
Withdraw troops immediately 25% 15% 37% 23% 22% 28%
Bring troops home within a year 32% 25% 41% 28% 28% 36%
Stay until mission is complete 37% 57% 15% 43% 45% 30%
Not sure 5% 2% 8% 6% 4% 6%

Of course this might not mean much because voters do not always vote based on the issues or else Kucinich would have more traction in the Democratic party. Nonetheless, this is very encouraging news for a candidate who is the ONLY anti-war voice from within the Republican party.

Conclusion
  • Ron Paul's fundraising suggests he has more support than the media is willing to admit.
  • One of the top states in which Paul receives donations is New Hampshire - the nation's first primary. A vital state to propel any candidate to the nomination.
  • Tabulated results of the straw polls shows Ron Paul at around 20%.
  • 40% of the GOP align closest to Ron Paul on the war -- and the latest news out from the AP shows this is the deadliest year. So more GOP may align themselves if the news worsens.
  • The GOP is getting more and more split among more and more candidates with five in double digits and Hunter growing with 4%. They are siphoning each other's pro-war vote while Ron Paul has the anti-war vote to himself.
  • What are the GOP going to do, if they continue to split the pro war vote, Ron Paul could sneak in and start winning some states.
  • All we can say for now is to watch out for New Hampshire. If Paul scores big, the pro-war GOP may put all their support on one or two candidates but what if they don't? The media's blackout on the success of Ron Paul may actually help him because it only allows the GOP to become more divided. Of course that is our opinion -- leave yours below.
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