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Ron Paul Polling 3-5% Higher but Ignored and Considered Not Statistically Important?

Published June 3, 2007, 1AM PST

There is a natural boost of about 3% that we feel Ron Paul will get and it is not being reported. This is a very bold statement that even I did not believe until after looking through all the data. In fact, the boost can become as high as 5% in just 2 months.

We predicted a drop to Rudy Giuliani that many of you surprised that we could make. He dropped 20% in 2 months. We predicted that the momentum in the Democratic race had shifted away from Barack Obama to Bill Richardson and we were called crazy because Obama had twice the support as Richardson. But the latest Iowa poll proved us correct again with Obama and Richardson in a statistical tie.

And we would be amazed if we were wrong with this prediction.

The Internet support Ron Paul is getting is being glossed over by many because it has not translated to a boost in the polls. But it does not tell the whole story. I think it is safe to assume that the majority of the Ron Paul supporters are young even though I do not have real statistical proof to back up that claim. I looked at the exit polls for the past 2 elections and noticed that about 15-20% of the voters are 18-29. That is about 1/5 of the voting public.

Ron Paul would undoubtedly fare much better among this small 20% of the public than the other 80%. Now the question to ask is whether this faction of our society is accurately being polled. We feel that for the most part they are fairly included in the polls. Of the pollster data that we have looked at, we have seen that group represented by an average of only about 3% less than would normally vote.

There is a couple of reasons for this small 3% difference that we feel to be because of the fact that a lot of individuals in the age group do not have landline telephones and because of the fact that the pollsters try to focus on those that are likely to vote. But for all the 18-20 year olds that have never had the choice to vote or not, how would the pollsters know who they are likely to vote for? The youth overwhelmingly support a liberal candidate and/or a third party candidate. Case in point is the 2004 election in which this age group voted for Ralph Nader 250% more frequently than the other age groups. For the Republican primaries and caucuses, that rogue candidate that appeals to the youth is Ron Paul and he is running as a Republican.

Another issue to note is the fact that many in this age group who are potential Ron Paul supporters are in college. How can they be polled if they are in college? Once they return home during the summers, we might see things shift a bit.

Pollsters get away with not correctly polling this very small faction. If the faction represents only about 3-5% of the public and their votes are distributed evenly across all the potential candidates then they have very little impact on the election. It is simple statistics and you cannot blame the pollsters for not wanting to spend the extra money and effort in profiling the youth. It is like the silent minority label that Asian Americans have had for ages. The Asian-Americans have been traditionally nullifying themselves by splitting their vote among Republicans and Democrats. Neither party takes the time nor the effort to pander to that minority group.

So in our prediction, we are going on the assumption that this time the 3-5% represents a stronger bloc of voters that will be overwhelmingly supporting Ron Paul if they are not already thanks to the good old Internet.

There is also a group of younger voters that may be profiled by the pollsters as not being likely to vote but would vote for Ron Paul. They may have been too disenfranchised by the political process and never felt that they had anyone to vote for until now.

Just imagine how many individuals rely on the Internet for information. Okay, the preference is still on television but the average voter will use the Internet at some point. If the Ron Paul supporters continue to support their candidate in a positive wholesome manner as they have, the average voter will have no choice but to see Ron Paul's message and thoughts.

This natural boost as we call it may never be seen nor reported until election day when the voters' real voices are heard. But if Ron Paul continues to languish in the polls, the youth that overwhelmingly supports him may not even bother to vote for him. And we may never see this natural boost that the polls should be reporting.

But this is just a theory because I have not seen any critical analysis done on the 18-29 age group that incorporates those without landlines, those that have never been eligible to vote before, and for those that have previously been too disenfranchised with our political process and never voted but would this time for a Ron Paul.

I am doubtful that any of the major pollsters will step up to the plate to analyze this group so I am in the process of contacting polling agencies to do a study on this for me. So keep your eyes peeled.

• See all our Ron Paul articles

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