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Ron Paul Polling at 5% in New Hampshire

9/11/07

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll
9/8/2007
New-Hampshire
Mitt Romney 28%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
John McCain 12%
Fred Thompson 11%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ron Paul 5%
Sam Brownback 2%
Unsure 13%
Source

New Hampshire is the state we expect Ron Paul to shine, not Iowa. They are largely anti-war -- the last Iraq war poll had approval ratings as low as 14% suggesting a large majority of Republicans are disenfranchised with the war. Indpendents can vote for candidates in either party at the New Hampshire primary. So no pollster is going to be able to correctly quantify which candidate will get a boost but if the Independents are anti-war, I think it is safe to say that Ron Paul would be the candidate to benefit.

There was a press release of us saying that Ron Paul "should" win New Hampshire (Source) and everybody quoted that as a prediction of it happening. Something that should happen does not mean that it will happen -- so it was not a prediction. But it's okay because if it happens, it will only make us look like more of a genius. And if it does not happen; well who cares because nobody will care what losers like us think. Just being facetious folks.

Anyways, it is good to see Ron Paul gain traction in NH especially because this is the state he has to shine in. But I would caution all of you Ron Paul supporters to understand that this is just one poll, chances are he will come down in a few polls and then go up. Variability often occurs for candidates polling near the MoE because the demographics/regions that they poll affect the outcome so much.

But the trend for Ron Paul has definitely been upwards in the state of New Hampshire so we are not discrediting nothing.

State Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep
Ron Paul's NH Average 1.0 1.3 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.3 1.2 3.0 5.0

The main article published by LA Times talking about their results did not even have a mention of Ron Paul. Not even to say that he got 5%. We had to find out by other means...

Unlike the mainstream media, we have not been silent about Ron Paul and we invite you to read our other articles on Ron Paul in New Hampshire.

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proloyProloy "Paul" Bhatta
M.S. Engineering; UCLA

david charles terrDavid Terr
Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
joseph hunterJoseph Hunter
High School Intern from Michigan

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One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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