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Three Way Dead Heat in Iowa - Zogby Poll Early November 2007

11/8/07

Candidates must get at least 15% in Iowa -- otherwise their votes will go to their second choice. Edwards cleans up second choice voters so much that he pulls into a statistical dead heat with Obama and Clinton.

Here are the poll results (Zogby Poll) showing Edwards slipping since January.

Democrats	Nov. 6	Aug. 17	May 15	March 26	Jan. 16
Clinton	28%	30%	24%	25%	16%
Obama	25%	19%	22%	23%	17%
Edwards	21%	23%	26%	27%	27%
Richardson	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%
Biden	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%
Dodd	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%
Kucinich	<1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Gravel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Not Sure	12%	13%	16%	15%	13%

However, the race tightens dramatically when second choices are factored into the mix – a critical wrinkle in the Iowa caucuses. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted. Zogby polling shows Edwards makes big strides as a second–choice candidate, jumping six percent (see chart).