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Troubled Economy And Sarah Palin Causes McCain to Drop 8% in Florida

9/30/08

State Pollster Date Barack Obama John McCain
FL PPP 9/27-28 49% 46%
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Gallup Tracking: Obama 49, McCain 43.
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 51, McCain 45.
Financial Dynamics Tracking: Obama 47, McCain 41.
Battleground Tracking: Obama 48, McCain 46.

AVERAGE: Obama 49, McCain 44.

Today: Obama +5. Yesterday: Obama +4.

The national tracking polls average shows and Obama gain of 1% since yesterday.

I was anxious to see the latest Florida (and Ohio) polls after seeing that Obama nearly doubling his margin in Pennsylvania .... Well Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead by 3%. Despite the fact that we pegged PPP as being an Obama friendly pollster, PPP had him down by 5% just 2.5 weeks ago... So it is safe to say that Obama has gained 8% on McCain.

The troubled economy and Sarah Palin's declining standing is what is causing these polls to shift away from John McCain.

According to the General Election Florida poll by Public Policy Polling:

64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and McCain led Obama by six points.

Another factor driving movement in Obama’s direction in Florida is Sarah Palin’s rapidly declining standing with voters in the state. Right after the convention 45% said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of her spot on the ticket, compared to 34% who said they were less likely to do so. Now the number saying Palin makes them more likely to support McCain has gone down to 40%, while the percentage of those saying they are less likely to do so has ticked up to 41%.

“The events of the past few weeks are pushing independents into Barack Obama’s camp,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Where McCain and Obama were tied with those voters three weeks ago, Obama now has an eight point advantage. John McCain badly needs the campaign to ‘switch topics’ if he’s going to reverse the strong movement in Obama’s direction.”

Also important to Obama’s movement in Florida is a much improved performance with white voters in the state. Where he had a 27 point deficit with them in early September, it is now down to just 11 points.

Florida Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Obama - 37.0 42.3 37.5 41.3 42.2 44.0 43.3 45.5
McCain - 44.5 48.0 49.5 46.3 45.7 44.7 46.7 47.8

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