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What McCain Must Do To Win the Election

10/28/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Nader
FL Rass 10/26
O+2%
51% 47% -
OH SUSA 10/26-27
O+5%
49% 45% -
OH Rass 10/26
O+5%
49% 45% -
NC Rass 10/26
TIE
48% 49% -
VA Rass 10/26
O+7%
51% 47% -
MO Rass 10/26
TIE
48% 47% -
CO Rass 10/26
O+8%
50% 46% 1%
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National Polls
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46.
Diageo: Obama 50, McCain 42.
Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 45.
Pew: Obama 53, McCain 38.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 46.
Gallup: Obama 51, McCain 44.

Average: Obama 51, McCain 44. (Obama +7%).

According to our daily average, Obama is ahead by 7% nationally. But here are a couple of caveats. We are using Gallup's expanded voter turnout model that has Obama ahead by 7% and excluded their traditional model which has Obama ahead by only 2%! And as of the time of this writeup, the results of the latest IBD/TIPP polls have not been released and they have been showing a narrowing race with McCain down by just 3% the past two days (6% last week). So we admit that our 7% average is skewed a bit in favor of Obama.

The state polls are getting a bit boring though. We see that Obama still maintains his leads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.

But for now, I am going to play a game called "What McCain needs to do to win the election."

  1. Gain 1.2% in Florida.
  2. Maintain his 4.4% lead in Georgia.
  3. Gain 2.1% in North Carolina.
  4. Gain 2.0% in Indiana.
  5. Gain 1.7% in Missouri.
  6. Gain 3.5% in Nevada.
  7. Edge a little bit ahead in Montana and North Dakota.
  8. Turn this around in Virginia by gaining 7.5%.
  9. Then either win Pennsylania or one of the following three states (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico).

The trends we see in the state polls trail the trends seen in national polls so if we were to, let's say, see a 4% McCain gain in the national polls we could essentially see a tied up race. There's uncertainty as to how much a 4% jump in the national polls would translate per state but I think it is safe to say a 4% gain in the national polls would effectively take care of #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #7 above. That leaves Nevada -3.5% and Virginia -7.5% in the air. Let's assume Nevada moves McCain's way with a 4% move, then McCain will have satisfied #6 above. And as Karl Rove said in a FOX News interview, the shift to McCain down the stretch in Virginia will exceed whatever shift McCain gets nationally. So a 4% move in McCain's favor nationally could mean 6 or 7% (for example) in Virginia.

So what McCain needs to do to win this election is move the polls numbers by about 4% nationally. That would knock down a lot of the necessary dominos. And then campaign hard in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. McCain practically needs to win Virginia and one other state.

If McCain's deficit in the national polls gets to about 3%, then we can say the race is as tight as a whistle.

State #EV Barack Obama John McCain
Florida 27 47.8 46.6
Pennsylvania 21 51.1 40.9
Ohio 20 49.5 44.4
Georgia 15 45.0 49.4
North Carolina 15 49.1 47.0
Virginia 13 51.6 44.1
Indiana 11 47.7 45.7
Missouri 11 47.8 46.1
Colorado 9 51.2 44.6
Iowa 7 51.3 39.5
New Mexico2 5 52.0 45.0
Nevada 5 49.0 45.5
Montana 3 44.5 44.5
North Dakota 3 45.0 45.0
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