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Wisconsin is Hillary Clinton's Bulwark Against Barack Obama's Momentum

2/9/08

Democratic Candidate WI MD
Pollster ARG SUSA
Date 2/6-7 2/7-8
Hillary Clinton 50% 33%
Barack Obama 41% 52%
Other(vol.) 9% 15%
Details Link Link

Obama is expected to perform well in the states leading up to Wisconsin but the latest poll from American Research Group has Clinton ahead by almost double digits in that state. But if Obama sweeps most every state leading up to Wisconsin, it will be interesting to see if her lead continues.

According to the Democratic Wisconsin poll by American Research Group:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 51% to 43% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads Obama among women 57% to 33%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 52% to 39% (90% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 75% to 19% (6% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 57% to 37%.

17% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 9% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 29% of men and 7% of women say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary. 12% of women and 6% of men say they would never vote for Obama in the primary.

According to the Democratic Maryland poll by Survey USA:

Maryland Democratic Primary: White Voters Split, Black Voters Propel Obama to Strong Advantage - In a Democratic Primary in Maryland today, 4 days to the vote, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WJLA-TV Washington DC. White voters split, 42% for Clinton, 40% for Obama. But Obama leads 4:1 among African Americans. When all likely voters are combined, it's 52% Obama, 33% Clinton. In the city of Baltimore, Obama leads by 31. In the Baltimore suburbs, Obama leads by 8. In the rest of Maryland, Obama leads by 23. Among seniors, Clinton leads by 15 points. But Obama leads among voters under age 65, including a 39-point advantage among voters age 35 to 49. If younger voters do not vote in the numbers here forecast, Obama's margin is overstated. At stake is a larger share of Maryland's 99 proportionally allocated delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

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