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ABC News Washington PostAdded: 10/6/08
ABC News Washington Post
The contours of the race are telling. Obama leads by a wide margin in Cuyahoga County, the heavily Democratic Cleveland metropolis. But perhaps more critical is his 17-point advantage in the state�s northeast, including the ailing industrial cities of Akron, Canton and Youngstown � a keystone for Democrats in statewide races. John Kerry managed only a closer, 52-47 split with George W. Bush in this region in 2004, not enough to win the state, and thus the presidency. The northeast isn�t the only region of interest. In the center and rural southeast of the state, generally Republican but including more-Democratic Columbus, it�s a 6-point race, 51-45 percent Obama-McCain � a region Bush won by 8 points four years ago. There are sharp divisions among groups, again with comparisons to 2004 instructive. While Obama�s losing white voters by 7 points, Kerry lost them by 12. While Kerry won 84 percent of Ohio�s black voters, Obama�s winning them essentially unanimously � 98 percent. Bush won married women by 20 points in 2004; they�re dividing about evenly now (and are substantially more worried than their husbands about the family�s finances). And while young voters favored Kerry by a 14-point margin, they�re even more of a mainstay for Obama; he holds a 2-1 lead among likely voters under 30, compared with a dead heat among those 30 and older. Relying on young voters is a risk for Obama (as it was for Kerry) given their uncertain turnout. What�s essential, then, is his ability to battle McCain to a standstill among over- 30s, a group Kerry lost by 7 points. And that has much to do with the economy.
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