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Primaries 2012: Primary Polls

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Primaries 2004: Primary Polls

Who gets your vote in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Mike Huckabee (MH)
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Democrat Polls

McClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon
Date: 1/30-2/1
Arizona
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads narrowly among whites, but this is the one state polled where Obama enjoys a solid lead among Hispanics, 53-37 percent.
Coker suggested one reason was that Arizona Hispanics are more ingrained in the suburban Phoenix and suburban Tucson culture than counterparts in California. "They've been there longer. They vote very differently than newer Hispanics," he said. "They don't see the black-brown conflict in the same context."

Hillary Clinton	43%
Barack Obama	41%
Unsure	13%
Source

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/31
Arizona
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

The race remains fluid and nearly one-third of the voters say they might change their mind. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Clinton�s voters are �certain� they will vote for her. Just 61% of Obama�s supporters are that certain.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Seventy-four percent (74%) say the same about Obama.
The candidates are seen as equally electable�76% believe that both Clinton and Obama would be somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated.

Hillary Clinton	45%
Barack Obama	39%
Source

Behavior Research Center Rocky Mountain Poll
Date: 1/20-24
Arizona
Added: 1/26/08
Est. MoE = 5.3% [?]

Quote:

At the moment Clinton clings to a lead that appears to be shrinking. Polls taken by ASU a week earlier showed Clinton with a much wider margin. This narrowing vote dynamic may be reflective of what has been seen in other elections around the country � tight contests on election day after early wide leads by Clinton.
There are several factors that should give strong motivation for supporters of both Obama and Clinton to get out their vote on election day. The most obvious of these is that even though 53 percent of Democrats say their voting intentions are �firm,� fully 47 percent of all Democratic voters remain in play. More specifically, 31 percent say they may change their vote even though today they lean toward one of the candidates. Another 18 percent admit that they are still trying to make up their minds.
Things to watch on election day that might favor Obama include a large turn out of women, voters under 35 years of age and African-American voters. Conversely, a strong turn out among middle and lower income Democrats, Hispanics, men and retirement age Democrats favors Clinton�s candidacy.
Candidate John Edwards attracts the support of only 15 percent of Democratic voters while Kucinich and Gravel have little or no appeal here.

Hillary Clinton	37%
Barack Obama	27%
John Edwards	15%
Dennis Kucinich	2%
Mike Gravel	1%
Unsure	18%
Source

Arizona State University Cronkite/Eight Poll
Date: 1/17-20
Arizona
Added: 1/23/08
Est. MoE = 5.1% [?]

Quote:

Clinton's supporters also mentioned a longer list of issues, with her experience the reason given by 38 percent. Obama appeals strongly to people who want change: Nearly half of his supporters cite that as the reason they plan to vote for him, the poll said.
"It's an interesting dynamic," Merrill said. "Clinton's got to use her experience but not to the extent that it identifies her as an insider."

Hillary Clinton	45%
Barack Obama	24%
John Edwards	9%
Dennis Kucinich	1%
Unsure	21%
Source

Republican Polls

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/31
Arizona
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

In his home state, McCain is seen as far more electable than Romney. Seventy-five percent (75%) say that their Senator would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Just 53% say the same about the former Governor of Massachusetts.

John McCain	43%
Mitt Romney	34%
Mike Huckabee	9%
Ron Paul	7%
Source

Behavior Research Center Rocky Mountain Poll
Date: 1/20-24
Arizona
Est. MoE = 5.4% [?]

Quote:

On the Republican side, the early low profile campaign strategy of Rudy Giuliani has cost him dearly in Arizona as GOP voters look elsewhere for leadership and find it mostly in John McCain and Mitt Romney. By not competing in the early primaries, it appears that Giuliani has relegated himself to the political non-entity level in Arizona after briefly leading in the polls last fall. Today, Giuliani attracts only seven percent and barely three percent are strongly committed to his election. The marginal performance of Giuliani may come to stand as a classic example of how not to run a presidential campaign in a western state like Arizona where the phrase �From New York City?� may cut deeper than preferences for taco sauce.
McCain holds a commanding 40 percent compared to 23 percent for Romney, nine percent for Huckabee and just seven percent for Thompson. Thompson withdrew from the race earlier this week but his name will remain on the ballot. Some think that Thompson supporters will shift to McCain, but they very well might find Romney or Huckabee of great appeal. If these voters do gravitate toward McCain, it is basically a wrap for McCain in Arizona but if not, the GOP race could also become significantly more competitive. Among most likely to vote Republican, McCain�s lead over Romney shrinks from 17 to 13 points.
While the Republican presidential primary appears more settled than the Democratic race, it too could also experience some shifts by election day. This traces to the fact that a four of ten GOP voters who �lean� toward one candidate or the other admit they could change their mind on who they favor between now and election day. Another ten percent were without any favorite at the time of this survey .

John McCain	40%
Mitt Romney	23%
Mike Huckabee	9%
Rudy Giuliani	7%
Fred Thompson	7%
Ron Paul	3%
Duncan Hunter	1%
Unsure	10%
Source

Arizona State University Cronkite/Eight Poll
Date: 1/17-20
Arizona
Est. MoE = 5.0% [?]

Quote:

McCain's lead represents a sharp rebound from a statewide poll last fall that put him behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The new poll also suggests that voters are supporting McCain despite the strong distrust of him by many core GOP conservatives in the state and the nation.