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Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
Presidential Candidates
Battleground States
Pro-Obama States
Pro-McCain States
Democratic Exit Polls
Pollster Grades
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Democrat Polls
Mitchell Interactive
Quote: Clinton is winning a more than a majority (54%) of the white vote but more than six in ten African-Americans (61%) are supporting Obama. Clinton is getting only 26% of African-Americans.
Mitchell Interactive
Quote: Clinton is winning a more than a majority (53%) of the white vote but about more than six in ten African-Americans (60%) are supporting Obama. Clinton is getting only 25% of African-Americans.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among men 58% to 26%, with 13% for John Edwards, and she leads Obama 57% to 27% among women, with 12% for John Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among early voters 62% to 24% and she leads Obama among in-person voters 55% to 28%, with 12% for Edwards. Clinton leads among white voters with 63%, with Obama at 24% and Edwards at 12%. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 71% to 20%. And Clinton leads among Hispanic voters with 63%, with Obama at 22% and Edwards at 31%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Clinton has recently called for all of Florida�s delegates to be seated at the Convention and even flew into the state for fundraisers and photo ops.
Strategic Vision
Quote: What is the most important issue to individually when making a selection for President? (Democrats only) Jobs and the Economy 24% The war in Iraq 17% Healthcare 16% Education 16% Taxes 8% The war on terror 7% Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University poll
Quote: "Even with Sen. Obama's landslide win in South Carolina, he still trails Sen. Clinton by 20 points and a comeback of that magnitude in the final hours would be virtually unprecedented in recent political history," said Brown. "Moreover, the demographics of the Florida Democratic electorate are not nearly as favorable to Obama as was the case in South Carolina, where more than half the voters were African-American.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among men 59% to 25%, with 13% for John Edwards, and she leads Obama 61% to 28% among women, with 6% for John Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among early voters 65% to 19% and she leads Obama among in-person voters 58% to 31%, with 8% for Edwards. Clinton leads among white voters with 64%, with Obama at 21% and Edwards at 11%. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 71% to 21%. And Clinton leads among Hispanic voters with 71%, with Obama at 22% and Edwards at 1%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Polling released earlier in the week showed that 56% of Democratic Primary Voters say it�s more important to select a President who can address economic issues rather than someone who can handle national security issues. Thirty percent (30%) took the opposite view. Among the state�s Republican Primary Voters, the national security capability was seen as more important.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among men 57% to 21%, with 17% for John Edwards, and she leads Obama 59% to 20% among women, with 13% for John Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among early voters 70% to 13% and she leads Obama among in-person voters 54% to 21%, with 16% for Edwards. Clinton leads among white voters with 64%, with Edwards at 18% and Obama at 11%. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 71% to 16%. And Clinton leads among Hispanic voters with 58%, with Obama at 20% and Edwards at 15%.
Survey USA
Quote: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 5 days ago, Clinton is down 9 points, Obama is up 7 points. Clinton had led by 33 at the beginning of the week, leads by 17 at the end of the week. Clinton had 65% of female votes two weeks ago, 60% earlier this week, 48% today. Among voters under age 50, where Clinton had led by 30 points 2 weeks ago, Obama today leads by 7, a 37-point swing to Obama. In SE FL, Clinton led by 44 points earlier this week, now by 6, a 38-point swing to Obama in 4 days. In SW and Central FL, Clinton leads by 32 points. In NW and NE FL, Clinton and Obama are effectively tied. Among those who say the Economy is most important, Clinton leads Obama 5:3. Among those who say Iraq is most important, Clinton
Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll conducted by Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D) and the Polling Company (R)
Quote: In Florida�s odd candidate-free, campaign-free Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 19 percentage points in a race with stark racial divisions. The poll found 42 percent backing Clinton, 23 percent supporting Obama and 12 percent former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
Strategic Vision
Quote: When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only). Change 48%. Experience 28%. Undecided 24%
Mason Dixon
Quote: "Florida is a friendly territory for Clinton, as its older and heavily female Democratic electorate plays to her strength," said pollster Brad Coker. "Obama has significant support among African-American voters and runs better among younger voters."
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among men 56% to 22%, with 16% for John Edwards, and she leads Obama 62% to 20% among women. Clinton leads Obama among early voters 68% to 20% and she leads Obama among in-person voters 56% to 22%. Clinton leads among white voters with 63%, with Edwards at 17% and Obama at 15%. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 75% to 19%. And Clinton leads among Hispanic voters with 72%, with Obama at 11% and Edwards at 9%.
Survey USA
Quote: Caveat: The national Democratic Party has penalized the state of Florida Democratic Party for scheduling its Primary before 02/05/08. As a result, delegates "won" on 01/29/08 will not be seated at the Democratic Convention this summer, the national Party says. Democratic candidates have agreed not to campaign in Florida. It is unknowable how, whether, or to what extent the fact that the Florida Democratic Primary is "unsanctioned" will influence turnout.
Research 2000 for The South Florida Sun Sentinel and Florida Times Union
Quote: Among Women: Clinton 56%, Obama 20%, Edwards 15%. Among Blacks: Obama 63%, Clinton 20%, Edwards 5%. Only 14% of voters likely to change their minds.
Insider Advantage
Quote: Towery: �Sen. Clinton is some danger of coming close to losing Florida. If Obama increases his African-American support a bit more, if Edwards remains in the race; and if turnout tends to be more motivated in the black community, then what seemed a safe state for Clinton could collapse into the hands of Obama. Clinton�s pledge not to campaign in Florida may strategically be the biggest mistake of the 2008 political season.�
Strategic Vision
Quote: �Clinton lost support over the past month with Obama making strong gains among African-American voters and also Hispanic voters,� said Johnson. �Clinton�s voters resemble the Mondale coalition over Gary Hart in many ways, older, less educated, and lower income. African-American women are breaking heavy for Obama. Were Edwards not in the race, it is very likely that his voters would shift to Obama and give him the lead.�
Survey USA
Quote: In 6 SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past 10 weeks, Clinton has led by 30 points or more on 5 occasions. Obama closed to within 20 points only once, in interviews conducted by SurveyUSA immediately following the New Hampshire primary, and released 01/11/08. In the 3 days since then, Clinton is up 5, Obama is down 9. Clinton's support among females is higher than it has ever been in Florida, now 65%. She leads Obama among women by 46 points.
Quinnipiac University poll
Quote: Sen. Clinton's lead looks even more formidable when voter preferences are analyzed based on the likelihood they will change their minds. While 75 percent of Clinton voters say they are unlikely to change their minds, only 61 percent of Obama voters feel that way.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Former South Carolina Senator John Edwards attracts support from 14% of Likely Primary Voters. That�s unchanged from a month ago. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure how they will vote and 3% support other candidates.
Survey USA Poll
Quote: In SurveyUSA's first Florida snapshot since Obama won Iowa and Clinton won New Hampshire, Clinton's lead is narrowed from 32 points before Christmas to 19 points today. Among male voters, Obama is up 13 points, John Edwards is down 10 points. Clinton's once 30-point lead among Florida male Democrats is now 4 points. Among females, Clinton continues to lead by 30. Clinton leads 4:1 among whites. Obama leads 3:1 among blacks. Obama runs strong in NE and NW Florida, but Clinton remains above 50% in Central, SW and SE Florida. There is movement to Obama among voters age 50 to 64; Clinton had led by 35, now by 8. There is little movement among voters age 65+, where Clinton remains ahead by 45.
Insider Advantage
Republican Polls
Mitchell Interactive
Quote: �This is basically a dead heat. Romney gained a point since last night while McCain dropped 3%. A major change came from those who have already voted. On Sunday night, Romney and McCain were tied among the 33% who said they already voted. After Monday night�s polling, Romney had a 9% lead among those voters. Romney also cut McCain�s lead among those who say they will be �definitely voting� from 4% in Sunday�s polling to 2% at the end of polling on Monday night,� Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said.
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research
Quote: Romney led the 30-64 age demographics while McCain took the youngest and oldest of voters.
Reuters/C SPAN/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: It is the second consecutive day of upward movement for McCain after his campaign won the endorsement from Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. McCain and Romney were tied in the tracking poll released two days ago. The doubts over whether the maverick Arizona senator could succeed in winning over GOP voters in a state where independent voters are not allowed to vote in the GOP primary election appear on the way to being assuaged.
Survey USA
Quote: We can reveal that in the final totals it is McCain 31.6%, Romney 31.2%, but we will caution that those numbers are not materially different than the Romney 31.9%, McCain 31.3% numbers that SurveyUSA reported this morning. The movement is too small to be judged significant, and the best interpretation of the data and the trendlines is that the contest could go either way. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee finish far back, tied for 3rd place, with half the votes of the front-runners. Romney has caught McCain among older voters. But McCain has caught Romney among younger voters.
Mitchell Interactive
Quote: �This is going to be a very close race in Florida. McCain is slightly stronger with men, he leads 36%-31%, while Romney trails by only 1% among women (35%-34%),� Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said.
American Research Group
Quote: Mitt Romney leads John McCain among men 35% to 30%. Among women, it is McCain 34%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 14%, and Giuliani 11%. McCain and Romney are tied at 33% each among in-person voters. Among early voters it is Romney 35% and McCain 30%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Seventy-nine percent (79%) of McCain�s voters have already voted or are certain they will vote for him. That number is identical for Romney voters. Just 5% of McCain voters and 7% of Romney voters say there�s a good chance they could change their mind.
Suffolk University poll
Quote: Of all the Republicans on your Florida ballot, who is the most Republican, in your opinion? Giuliani 12%, Huckabee 10%, McCain 24%, Paul 5%, Romney 24%, Undecided 25%.
Strategic Vision
Quote: What is the most important issue to individually when making a selection for President? (Republicans only) The war in Iraq 19% Jobs and the Economy 18% Taxes 15% The war on terror 11% Healthcare 11% Education 10% Undecided 16%
Quinnipiac University poll
Quote: The shakeup in the Republican race, in which McCain and Romney have pulled away from what was a four-way dead heat two weeks ago, stems from former Huckabee and Giuliani voters moving to one of the two front-runners. In the last two weeks, McCain and Romney have gained 10 and 12 points respectively, while Giuliani and Huckabee have lost six points each.
American Research Group
Quote: Mitt Romney leads John McCain among men 33% to 31%. Among women, it is McCain 33%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 14%, and Giuliani 12%. McCain and Romney are tied at 33% each among in-person voters. Among early voters it is Romney 32%, McCain 31%, Giuliani 16%, and Huckabee 13%.
Reuters/C SPAN/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: Voters who identify themselves as conservative, a group that represents more than half the sample, have also reversed themselves. After giving Romney the edge, McCain now has the support of 34% to Romney�s 33%. In yesterday�s tracking poll, Romney led among those voters with 34% of their support to McCain�s 28%. Moderate voters consistently prefer McCain, giving him 44% of their support in the most recent poll, compared to Romney�s 15%. Among �very conservative� voters, Romney fares far better, winning 48% support to McCain�s 13%. Huckabee is actually ahead of McCain among the �very conservative� voters, winning 20% support.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Three percent (3%) of Florida�s Likely Voters have yet to make up their mind. Another 21% say they might still change their mind. That figure includes 8% who say there�s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research
Quote: - Romney has been trending upward and the fact that the race became a virtual tie again last night shows the volatility of the contest within a very small margin.
American Research Group
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney 32% to 25% among men. McCain leads among women with 29%, followed by Romney at 27%, Huckabee at 19%, and Giuliani at 15%. McCain leads among early voters with 33%, followed by Romney at 23% and Giuliani at 20%. McCain leads among in-person voters with 30%, followed by Romney at 27%, Huckabee at 15%, and Giuliani at 12%. In the January 20-21 survey, McCain was at 29% with in-person voters and Romney was at 22%.
Reuters/C SPAN/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: Romney and McCain are nearly tied in almost every demographic group. More people over age 65 said they would vote for Romney than McCain, with seniors giving the former Massachusetts governor 35% of their support, compared to 33% who support the Arizona senator. That demographic group makes up more than a third of the sample in Florida. Romney also had more support from voters under 30, getting 28% of their support, compared to McCain�s 25% support from them.
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research
Quote: 18-29 Year Olds: Paul 22%, Huckabee 22%, Giuliani 17%.
Reuters/C SPAN/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: McCain leads Romney among men, 33% to 27%, with Giuliani at 18%. Among women, Romney holds a tiny 29% to 28% edge, with Giuliani and Huckabee tied at 12%. Ron Paul dominates among Florida Republicans under age 30, but McCain leads among those age 30-49. McCain and Romney are tied among those age 50-64, but Romney holds the edge among those age 65 and older.
Survey USA
Quote: In interviews conducted after Fred Thompson withdrew from the race, but before Republicans debated in Boca Raton late on 1/24/08, the race stands: McCain 30%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 14%, Ron Paul 6%. Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent release, 4 days ago, before Thompson withdrew, McCain is up 5, Romney is up 9, Giuliani is down 2, Huckabee is flat. Among Conservatives, Romney leads McCain by 9 points. Among Moderates, McCain leads Giuliani by 16 points. McCain leads by 18 in SE FL and by 28 in NW FL. McCain and Romney are tied in SW FL. Romney leads by 13 in Central FL and 16 in NE FL.
Insider Advantage
Quote: 24% of women have not settled on a candidate versus just 12% of men.
Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll conducted by Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D) and the Polling Company (R)
Quote: But it�s the volatile GOP race the nation is mainly watching, as Florida Republicans stand to have a huge influence over which candidates have a shot at competing as nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staked his candidacy on Florida, and even with 27 percent of Florida Republicans saying they might change their minds, it looks like a bad gamble.
Strategic Vision
Quote: Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only). Yes 8%, No 77%, Undecided 15%.
Mason Dixon
Quote: "Romney gets the support of most of those voting on the economy and immigration, while McCain is backed by those most concerned about terrorism," said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Romney has picked up two points since the previous Rasmussen Reports poll conducted on Sunday night. McCain has gained three points and Giuliani just one. In between the two polls, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson dropped out of the race leaving the major candidates scrambling for his support.
Insider Advantage
Quote: Panhandle: McCain 19%, Romney 13%, Giuliani 24%, Huckabee 23%, Paul 2%, Other 8%, Undecided 11%.
American Research Group
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney 29% to 24% among men. McCain leads among women with 28%, followed by Huckabee at 21%, Romney at 19%, and Giuliani at 18%. Giuliani and McCain are tied at 28% each among early voters, followed by Romney at 21% and Huckabee at 12%. McCain leads among in-person voters with 29%, followed by Romney at 22%, Huckabee at 18%, and Giuliani at 13%.
Survey USA
Quote: Among Moderates, McCain has twice the votes of any other candidate. Among voters who say the Economy is the issue the next President should focus on ahead of all others, McCain is 1st, 10 atop Romney. Among voters who say Terrorism is most important, Giuliani is 1st, 8 atop McCain. Giuliani's entire campaign is predicated on a Giuliani win in Florida and the "big states" that follow.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Among those who are �certain� how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Research 2000 for The South Florida Sun Sentinel and Florida Times Union
Quote: 24% of voters said they were likely or very likely to change their minds.
Insider Advantage
Quote: InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate Matt Towery: �This is anyone�s race. My guess is that the candidate who emerges the winner from South Carolina will receive another one of these two-or-three day �bumps,� which might hold through the Jan. 29 Florida primary.�
Strategic Vision
Quote: �The Republican race continues to remain highly volatile, with a new leader emerging� said Johnson. �John McCain who had fallen as far as fifth in earlier polls has rebounded and now leads. He draws heavily among Republicans who identify the war in Iraq as a major issue and among Republicans who consider themselves to be moderate. He polls strongly in North Florida and the I-4 Corridor. Huckabee polls very strongly among evangelical voters and his strongest areas of support are in Ocala and North Florida.
Survey USA
Quote: Among "Conservative" Republicans, 1 point separates 1st and 4th place: Giuliani, McCain and Romney all at 21%, Huckabee at 20%. Among "Moderate" Republicans, it's a 2-way tie: McCain at 30%, Giuliani at 29%. Regional differences are pronounced. In SE Florida, Giuliani is 22 points atop Romney, who is in 2nd. In Central Florida, McCain is 15 points atop Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney, who all tie for 2nd. In SW Florida, McCain is 8 points ahead of Huckabee, who is in 2nd. Huckabee's support is disproportionately young. McCain's support is disproportionately old.
Quinnipiac University poll
Quote: "The Republican race is a dead heat with all four major contenders within three points for first place. What happens in the coming days in the Michigan and South Carolina primaries will likely have major effect on which of the four wins Florida," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Giuliani enjoys the most solid support�63% of his voters are �certain� they will vote for him. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Romney�s voters are that certain along with 42% of McCain fans and 41% of those who support Huckabee. Just 9% of Giuliani voters say there is a �good chance� they could change their mind. That figure ranges from 16% to 18% for the other three top candidates in Florida.
Survey USA Poll
Quote: Giuliani's entire campaign is predicated on a win in Florida on 01/29/08, immediately followed by wins in other "big states." Giuliani did not compete in Iowa and competed half-heartedly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, concentrating his time and once-considerable resources on Florida. Now, McCain runs stronger than Giuliani in all 5 regions of Florida, including Southeast Florida, where Giuliani had led McCain by 51 points 6 weeks ago. Among males, Giuliani's support is half of what it was 5 weeks ago. McCain among men jumped 20 points after New Hampshire. Among Conservatives, Huckabee is tied with McCain for the lead, Giuliani and Romney tied for 3rd place. Among Moderates, McCain leads Giuliani 2:1 and leads Huckabee 5:1. Among voters age 49 and younger, Huckabee, McCain and Giuliani are in an effective tie for the lead. Among voters age 50+, McCain leads Giuliani by 11.
Insider Advantage
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Florida polls.
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