Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Democrat Polls

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/29-31
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]

Quote:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as close as they have been since the polling program started at the beginning of 2008. Forty-four percent of Democratic voters nationwide support Clinton, while 41% support Obama, within the poll's three-point margin of error. The data suggest that Obama has gained slightly more -- at least initially -- from John Edwards' departure from the race. In the final tracking data including Edwards in all three days' interviewing (Jan. 27-29 data), Clinton had 42%, Obama 36%, and Edwards 12%. Since then, Clinton's support has increased two points and Obama's five. Tomorrow's release will be the first pure post-Edwards three-day rolling average.

Hillary Clinton	44%
Barack Obama	41%
John Edwards	4%
Mike Gravel	1%
Unsure	8%
Other	2%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/27-29
Added: 1/31/08
Est. MoE = 2.7% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.
Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race Wednesday after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.

Hillary Clinton	42%
Barack Obama	36%
John Edwards	12%
Mike Gravel	1%
Unsure	8%
Other	1%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/25-27
Added: 1/28/08
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]

Quote:

At the same time, Gallup analysis of interviewing conducted Sunday shows Clinton is ahead by 10 points, not the immediately significant impact of Obama's overwhelming win in South Carolina that Obama supporters may have hoped for. Today, Sen. Edward Kennedy is scheduled to announce his endorsement of Obama. This follows his niece Caroline Kennedy's strong endorsement of Obama Sunday in a New York Times op-ed, which could have some influence on Democrats nationally. Tuesday's Florida primary has less significance for Democrats because there are no delegates at stake, but there could be some impact of news reports of the popular vote.

Hillary Clinton	44%
Barack Obama	33%
John Edwards	14%
Mike Gravel	1%
Unsure	8%
Other	1%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/10-13
Added: 1/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]

Quote:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has regained her lead over Sen. Barack Obama. The two were tied a week ago.

Hillary Clinton	45%
Barack Obama	33%
John Edwards	13%
Dennis Kucinich	1%
Mike Gravel	1%
Unsure	7%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/4-6
Added: 1/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

Iowa winner Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton. Both now have 33% of the vote. This represents a 6-point gain since December 2007 for Obama and a 12-point loss for Clinton. John Edwards has gained 5 points since December, moving from 15% to 20% support among Democrats. Edwards is now closer to the front-runner among Democrats than he has been at any point since Gallup began tracking the Democratic race more than a year ago. This is also the first time since June that Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead over the rest of her competitors. She had led by 27 points as recently as mid-November.

Hillary Clinton	33%
Barack Obama	33%
John Edwards	20%
Dennis Kucinich	3%
Bill Richardson	1%
Other	1%
None of these	8%
Source

Republican Polls

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/29-31
Est. MoE = 3.0% [?]

Quote:

John McCain continues to hold a 15-point advantage over Mitt Romney on the Republican side. Jan. 29-31 Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show 39% of GOP voters nationwide favoring McCain for the nomination, while 24% support Romney and 17% Mike Huckabee. It appears McCain is the primary beneficiary of Rudy Giuliani's campaign exit, not surprising since Giuliani endorsed McCain. McCain's support has increased by seven points compared with the Jan. 27-29 data (the last in which Giuliani was included in all three nights of interviewing). Romney's support has increased three points since then, and Huckabee's has gone down one point. It is difficult to assess the precise impact of Giuliani's departure since it essentially occurred simultaneously with McCain's win in the crucial Florida primary held Tuesday. -- Jeff Jones

John McCain	39%
Mitt Romney	24%
Mike Huckabee	17%
Ron Paul	5%
Rudy Giuliani	3%
Alan Keyes	2%
Unsure	8%
Other	3%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/27-29
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]

Quote:

On the Republican side, the three-day average shows McCain with an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 21%. Rudy Giuliani, who will be dropping out of the race and possibly endorsing McCain, received 11%, well behind the third place Mike Huckabee. These GOP figures do not reflect the impact of McCain's victory in Florida on Tuesday night, and that, coupled with the departure of Giuliani, will have the potential to change the dynamics of the national pattern of Republican support significantly in interviewing Wednesday night. -- Frank Newport

John McCain	32%
Mitt Romney	21%
Mike Huckabee	18%
Rudy Giuliani	11%
Ron Paul	4%
Alan Keyes	1%
Unsure	11%
Other	3%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/25-27
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]

Quote:

The Republican race appears to be tightening. John McCain's lead over Mitt Romney is now only 8 points, from a recent high of 14 points in polling conducted early last week. Mike Huckabee remains slightly behind Romney, while Rudy Giuliani is in fourth place with 13% of the Republican national vote. The results of Tuesday's Florida primary could have a significant effect on the standing of the GOP candidates nationally. -- Frank Newport

John McCain	29%
Mitt Romney	21%
Mike Huckabee	18%
Rudy Giuliani	13%
Ron Paul	5%
Alan Keyes	1%
Unsure	12%
Other	2%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/10-13
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

Sen. John McCain has jumped ahead of the other Republican contenders.

John McCain	33%
Mike Huckabee	19%
Rudy Giuliani	13%
Mitt Romney	11%
Fred Thompson	9%
Ron Paul	3%
Duncan Hunter	2%
Alan Keyes	1%
Unsure	9%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/4-6
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

Among Republicans, Huckabee has jumped from 16% of the vote in December 2007 to 25% as of this polling. Coupled with the loss of support for former front-runner Rudy Giuliani, Huckabee is now the leader among Republicans nationally, with a 5-point lead over Giuliani and 6-point lead over John McCain (who has gained 5 points since December). Mitt Romney, after failing to win in Iowa, is now in fifth place nationally with just 9% of the vote, which is his lowest percentage since early October.