Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Democrat Polls

Downs Center by Survey USA
Date: 4/28-30
Indiana
Added: 5/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

The intensity of the presidential nomination contests between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has mobilized likely Indiana Democratic Primary voters throughout the state. We are cautious to draw too many direct comparisons with our previous poll as both were separate samples and snapshots of the Indiana electorate under different conditions. Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton appears to have improved her electoral fortunes considerably. In our most recent poll taken between April 28 and April 30 of 689 registered voters likely to participate in the May 6 Indiana Democrat Primary, 52% support Clinton and 45% support Obama (+/- 3.8%). Our previous poll between April 14 and April 16 had Obama receiving 50% of likely registered Democratic primary voters to Clinton�s 45%. The latest poll fell during the latest Reverend Wright controversy, with Barack Obama publicly separating himself from Wright on the second day of polling. Further, the poll was completed before Democratic superdelegates Congressman Baron Hill and former Democratic National Committee Chair Joe Andrew endorsed Barack Obama. Consequently, the effect of all of these events is unclear. What is clear, however, is that Clinton has expanded her lead among strong Democratic identifiers and dramatically turned the tables on Obama with independent voters and those concerned about the worsening economy.

Hillary Clinton	52%
Barack Obama	45%
Unsure	3%
Source

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/29
Indiana
Added: 5/1/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Clinton voters say they are �certain� they will vote for her while 77% of Obama supporters say the same about their decision. Among supporters of each candidate, just 4% say there�s a good chance they will change their mind.
Clinton leads by nineteen percentage points among White voters. Obama leads 90% to 4% among African-Americans.
Obama leads among voters under 40 while Clinton has the edge among older voters. The former First Lady is especially strong among those over 65--she leads by a two-to-one margin among senior citizens.
The survey was conducted Tuesday night. That was after Obama�s denunciation of his former Pastor but before Hoosiers had a chance to see it in the morning newspapers.
Clinton is viewed favorably by 73% of Likely Indiana Primary Voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 70%. Those figures include 46% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton and 39% who think that highly of Obama.
Fifty percent (50%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

Hillary Clinton	46%
Barack Obama	41%
Unsure	13%
Source

TeleResearch Corporation
Date: 4/25-29
Indiana
Added: 5/1/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

What is particularly striking in the results is the declining support for Obama in favor of Clinton over successive days in which respondents were questioned.
On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a 2 percent lead -- 45 percent to 43 percent, despite a 20-point lead for Obama among male respondents. Each day, more respondents supported Clinton.
By the last day of polling, Clinton took 4 percent lead among men -- 45 percent to 41 percent -- representing a staggering 24-point swing.
Over the four days in which the survey was conducted, the controversy involving the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's former pastor, swelled.
"In that window, he dominated all the political news in the presidential race," said Jeff Lewis, TeleResearch CEO. "In that period of time, Obama's lead among men went from a 20 point lead on Friday � to a four point lead for Sen. Clinton."
Among females, Clinton held a commanding lead of between 15 and 20 points.

Hillary Clinton	48%
Barack Obama	38%
Unsure	14%
Source

Howey Gauge Market Research
Date: 4/23-24
Indiana
Added: 4/30/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the �Obamacans� as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party�s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election. Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. �The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,� said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. �To be determined is which group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide this race.�

Hillary Clinton	46%
Barack Obama	46%
Unsure	8%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/26-27
Indiana
Added: 4/30/08
Est. MoE = 2.6% [?]

Quote:

�Demographically Indiana should shape up pretty well for Hillary Clinton,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �She may be able to win a strong enough victory in the state to balance out the good margin Barack Obama is likely to win by in North Carolina. The question then becomes whether a tie on May 6th is enough to keep her in the race.�
Indiana has an open primary but it�s unclear who will benefit from that. Clinton leads 48-47 with the 14% of voters who described themselves as Republicans. Obama has the 52-37 edge with voters who described their affiliation as being �other� than either Democratic or Republican. Those voters made up 12% of the survey.

Hillary Clinton	50%
Barack Obama	42%
Unsure	8%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 4/25-27
Indiana
Added: 4/29/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

No Clear Trend in Indiana -- Clinton Ends April Just As She Started: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/28/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males , for Democrats , for pro-choice voters , and for residents of greater Indianapolis . Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters.

Hillary Clinton	52%
Barack Obama	43%
Unsure	2%
Other	3%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 4/23-24
Indiana
Added: 4/29/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 43% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 56% to 40%.
Clinton leads 55% to 39% among white voters (85% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 7% among African American voters (11% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Obama leads 55% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 59% to 35% among voters age 50 and older.
25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 34% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Hillary Clinton	50%
Barack Obama	45%
Unsure	5%
Source

South Bend Tribune Conducted by Research 2000
Date: 4/23-24
Indiana
Added: 4/25/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

�The Democratic electorate in Indiana is not heavily made up among white women over the age of 60 like it was in Pennsylvania,� Ali said, referring to a group of voters heavily in Clinton�s corner.
Clinton won Pennsylvania by about 10 percent.
Here in Indiana, she got the nod from 59 percent of the respondents over age 60, to Obama�s 35 percent.
Clinton also holds 53 percent of women voters, to Obama�s 45 percent.
Similarly, Obama needs to retain, and even increase, the number of younger voters who will cast their ballots for him May 6, Ali said.
Obama earned support from 66 percent of respondents between 18 and 29 years old in the Tribune poll, to Clinton�s 33 percent.
�If that 18-to-29 grows in percent, he wins,� Ali said.
And the two campaigns agree on one thing, at least: It�s going to be a close race, and your vote matters.
�If any Indiana voter had any question about whether his or her vote will be able to shape this nominating process, and finally fundamentally change Washington, I think all the recent polls have put this to rest,� said Kevin Griffis, a spokesman for Obama�s Indiana campaign.
That means both sides will be working hard to capture your vote in the next week and a half.
�We�re concentrating on getting out the vote and winning on May 6,� said Jonathan Swain, spokesman for Hoosiers for Hillary.

Barack Obama	48%
Hillary Clinton	47%
Unsure	5%
Source

Star / WTHR Poll
Date: 4/20-23
Indiana
Added: 4/25/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Quote:

Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election -- a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points -- Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled.
And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election.
Robert Gibbs, national communications director for the Obama campaign, said the poll "points to a primary that we believe will be very close and very competitive."
But, he said, "the numbers in the general election show Barack Obama's unique ability to change the political map and bring people participating for the first time, or for the first time in a long time, into the election this year."
Joe Hogsett, co-chairman of Clinton's campaign in Indiana, said this and other polls show "this is a toss-up race that is going to be very hotly contested and hard-fought."
He argued, though, that Clinton's win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday has changed the momentum and that the full impact of that win hadn't sunk in when the poll was taken.

Barack Obama	41%
Hillary Clinton	38%
Unsure	21%
Source

Downs Center / Survey USA
Date: 4/14-16
Indiana
Added: 4/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

578 registered Hoosier voters likely to participate in the May 6 Democratic primary prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton. Obama received 50% of the support and Clinton received 45%, with 5% undecided (margin of error +/- 4.2).
Clinton�s most solid support comes from the most partisan Democrats (51% Clinton to 45% Obama), with weaker Democratic identifiers, independents, and most Republicans tending to support Obama.
Obama outperforms Clinton with Indiana men (55% to 42%) while women are for Clinton (48% to 46%)--but within the margin of error.
Likely Indiana Democratic primary voters over 50 prefer Clinton to Obama (53% to 42%) while Obama leads among the voters under 50 (59% to 36%).
Meanwhile, white Democratic primary Hoosier voters also fall within the margin of error on vote preference with 48% indicating they would support Clinton and 47% who would support Obama. Obama dominates among African-Americans 78% to 17%.
The effects of income and education follow similar patterns concerning Democratic primary support. Higher educated likely Democratic primary voters support Obama while the less educated of these voters support Clinton. Clinton does relatively better than Obama among those with lower incomes, while Obama does particularly well among the highest income Hoosiers in this voting block.

Barack Obama	50%
Hillary Clinton	45%
Unsure	5%
Source

Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll
Date: 4/10-14
Indiana
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

In Indiana, where little polling has occurred, previous surveys gave Clinton the edge. The Times/Bloomberg poll put Obama ahead, 40% to 35%.

Barack Obama	40%
Hillary Clinton	35%
Unsure	19%
Other	6%
Source

Survey USA poll
Date: 4/11-13
Indiana
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

Indiana Men, Democrats, & Young Voters Move Away From Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/14/08, three weeks until the primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Clinton is up 3 points, Obama is down 4 points. Clinton had led by 9 at the beginning of April, leads by 16 mid-month. Here's where the movement is occurring:Among men, Obama had trailed by 2, now trails by 12, a 10-point swing to Clinton. In greater Indianapolis, Obama had led by 12, now trails by 1, a 13-point swing to Clinton. Among Democrats, Obama had trailed by 12, now trails by 27, a 15-point swing to Clinton. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton had led by 10, now leads by 30, a 20-point swing to Clinton. Among the youngest voters, Obama had led by 19, now trails by 2, a 21-point swing to Clinton.

Hillary Clinton	55%
Barack Obama	39%
Unsure	3%
Other	3%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 4/2-3
Indiana
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 49% to 47% among men (44% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 56% to 41%.
Clinton leads 57% to 39% among white voters (85% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (11% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Clinton leads 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 55% to 41% among voters age 50 and older.
22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 33% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.