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Indy Star Selzer WTHRAdded: 10/30/08
Indy Star Selzer WTHR
The results are even tighter than they were in the last Star-WTHR poll in mid-September, when Obama led, 47 percent to 44 percent. It portends a cliff-hanger election in Indiana, a state that usually is declared "red" by the TV networks within minutes of most polls in the state closing at 6 p.m. "It's just that close," said pollster Ann Selzer. There are, she said, several factors that could tip this race either way: New voters: More than 525,000 new voter registrations have been submitted since 2006. Among those first-time voters, Obama, a Democrat, is getting more than twice as much support as McCain, a Republican. Among people who voted in the past -- and who may be considered likely to vote this time -- McCain has the advantage. Young voters: Obama is the favorite, by far. Among likely voters younger than 35, Obama leads McCain, 61 percent to 35 percent. Among likely voters younger than 45, Obama holds a lead of 12 percentage points. But young people as a group have been notoriously fickle in the past, not showing up to vote in strong numbers, while older voters have been reliable. And among voters 45 and older, McCain leads. Black voters: Obama is the strong favorite, winning 82 percent of their vote. And, Selzer said, Obama needs their votes to win because McCain leads among white voters.
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