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Democrat Polls
Final New Hampshire Results
Date: 1/8/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/10/08
Est. MoE = -100.0% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/6-7/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/5-7/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/8/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]
Quote: "Obama is still on a roll and not slowing down. He had another big day," pollster John Zogby said. Obama led Clinton in all categories of voters except women and voters over the age of 65, and was pulling away from the New York senator among base Democratic voters. "This is the same thing he did in the closing hours in Iowa," Zogby said of Obama.
American Research Group
Date: 1/6-7
New Hampshire
Added: 1/8/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 44% to 25%, with 21% for John Edwards. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 37% to 35%, with 20% for Edwards. Obama leads Clinton among Democrats 37% to 34% and Obama leads Clinton among undeclared voters (independents) 44% to 25%. Clinton has increased support among likely voters age 25 to 49.
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
Date: 1/4-6
New Hampshire
Added: 1/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]
Quote: Obama’s support has also increased among young voters, although women are still slightly more likely to back Clinton. Obama edged out Clinton by 5 points among women in Iowa. Even with the primary only two days away, 12 percent of those voting in the Democratic primary are undecided, and another 21 percent say they may still change their mind about which candidate to vote for on Tuesday. Almost all of Obama’s supporters are confident he would be able to beat the Republican in November — 84 percent say so, up from 71 percent that thought so last month. Confidence that Clinton can win in November has stayed steady: 77 percent today and 79 percent in December. The most important candidate attribute to Democrats in the Granite State is the ability to "bring about needed change," with almost four in 10 putting this above the having the "right experience" (24 percent) and "understands average Americans" (20 percent). "Change" voters strongly back Obama (+26 points), while "experience" voters largely support Clinton (+37 points).
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 2.7% [?]
Quote: Clinton and Obama are essentially even among Democrats but the Illinois Senator enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. Obama’s success is causing problems for John McCain as Independent voters are growing less likely to participate in the GOP Primary. McCain’s lead in that race has slipped to a statistically insignificant single percentage point.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: “This full sample is after Iowa. On the Democratic side, we have clarity and confirmation of what is being felt on the ground in New Hampshire: big momentum for Obama and movement against Clinton. As in the closing days in Iowa, Clinton is slowly losing her support among women (she leads 37% to 33%), Democrats (Obama leads 36% to 32%), and Liberals (Obama leads 34% to 32%). Obama leads among Independents (47% to 22%), men (45% to 21% for Edwards and 18% for Clinton), and 18-29 year olds (47% to 22%). Obama also leads Clinton among all voters under age 65, Moderates (by a 45% to 25% margin), and among voters in union households (40% to 22%).
CBS News Poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 6.0% [?]
Quote: Obama leads Clinton among Independents in this poll, 41% to 24%. Among Democrats, Clinton has a slim lead, 33% to 30%. In November, when respondents were interviewed for the first time, Clinton had a wide margin among those same independents. WHO CAN BRING REAL CHANGE TO WASHINGTON? (Among likely Democratic primary voters) Obama could: 63%. Obama could not: 25%. Clinton could: 60%. Clinton could not: 32%.
Marist College Poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
American Research Group
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads John Edwards among men 44% to 23%, with 19% for Hillary Clinton. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 35% to 34%, with 21% for Edwards. Clinton and Obama are tied among Democrats with 34% each, while Obama leads Edwards among undeclared voters (independents) 47% to 25%.
USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]
Quote: Sens. Obama and Clinton were essentially tied among both registered voters and likely voters in New Hampshire in the Dec. 17-19 USA Today/Gallup poll. By this past weekend, after the Iowa caucuses, Obama had moved slightly ahead of Clinton among registered voters, but jumped more significantly ahead among likely voters. Obama now has a substantial 13-point, 41% to 28% lead over Clinton among likely voters, with Sen. John Edwards following in third place, with 19% of the vote. This marks a dramatic shift from just 2 1-2 weeks ago. All in all, Obama's share of the vote among likely voters went up by nine points between the two polls, Clinton's dropped by four points, Edwards' share went up by one point, Gov. Bill Richardson's dropped by two points, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich's share stayed the same. The "no opinion" or "other" percentage went from 2% to 3% between the two polls. (The mid-December USA Today/Gallup poll included the names of Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd -- both of whom dropped out of the race after last Thursday's Iowa caucuses. Those two candidates had 5% support between them in the December poll.) The largest shift came in Democratic voters' views of the candidate who "has the best chance of beating the Republican in November." Obama jumped by 19 points on this dimension between the two polls, while Clinton fell by 13 points. The result? Whereas Clinton led Obama on this dimension by 21 points in mid-December, Obama now leads Clinton by 11 points after Iowa.
Franklin Pierce University/WBZ Poll conducted with RKM Research and Communications
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]
Quote: In a poll of Democratic voters, 34 percent of say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today -- that's six percent more than the last WBZ/Franklin Pierce poll, which was taken only four days ago. Clinton has only gained one percent since the last poll, putting her at second with 31 percent. Edwards comes in third with 20 percent. On the Democratic side, 38 percent of voters polled said Obama will end up winning the Democratic nomination, which is up 17 percent from only four days ago. Thirty percent said Clinton would win and only 5 percent said Edwards would take it.
Strategic Vision
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is more important to you, a candidate who represents change or one who represents experience? (Democrats Only). Change 54%. Experience 27%. Undecided 19%.
CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire Granite State tracking poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/7/08
Est. MoE = 5.2% [?]
Quote: "The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee. But in Saturday's poll, Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure, and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability." And CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider said the poll "strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire." "Obama's gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards," Schneider said. "Obama's lead has now hit double digits going into the home stretch." Obama also appears to be pulling even with Clinton among women, a voting block that she once dominated in the polls. And when asked which candidate has the best chance of beating the Republican presidential nominee, likely Democratic primary voters now choose Obama over Clinton 42 percent to 31 percent.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]
Quote: The current poll shows John Edwards with 18%, Bill Richardson with 8%, and Dennis Kucinich with 3% support. Nationally, Clinton still leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Obama is narrowly favored to win the nomination. In New Hampshire’s Republican race, John McCain holds a narrow lead over Mitt Romney. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Primary Voters say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Barack Obama if he is nominated. An identical number, 88%, say the same about John Edwards. Just 80% would consider voting for Hillary Clinton if she is nominated. Those figures reflect a bit more unity than is found among Republicans. John McCain is the only GOP candidate to top the 80% mark on this question. Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/2-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: “Make no mistake about it, there is movement here. Only 50% of this sample is after the Iowa caucus results were known and there has been a 5-point swing on the Democratic side. Clinton started out leading 32% to 26% over Obama and now she is in a dead heat at 31% to 30%. Obama has won in that part of the sample taken since Iowa – and just this past one day alone Obama led by 8 points. “Democrats are drawing the lion’s share of the Independents (40% of the total vote) and I have two key observations to make: Edwards still holds at 20% (including 21% since Iowa). Obama gets the lion’s share of leaners, with Edwards receiving a smaller share. Clinton is shut out among leaners.
McClatchy MSNBC Poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research
Date: 1/2-4/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]
Quote: Riding an Iowa crest, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has caught New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race for the New Hampshire primary, while Arizona Sen. John McCain maintains a solid lead in the Republican contest, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll. Obama now leads Clinton by a margin of 33 percent to 31 percent, thanks to an apparent surge of support the night after he won the Iowa caucuses. Given the poll's margin of error, the numbers amount to a statistical tie. But that still marks a gain for Obama, who has trailed Clinton in New Hampshire for months. But the poll may have picked up the beginning of an Obama rally. Obama trailed Clinton 30 percent to 27 percent the first two nights of the polling, then surged ahead, 39 percent to 32 percent Friday night -- the day after Iowa. The nightly sample of 200 was small, however, and subject to a greater margin of error.
Research 2000 for The Concord Monitor
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]
Quote: Among likely Democratic primary voters, Barack Obama was the choice of 34 percent of those surveyed and Hillary Clinton was the choice of 33 percent, suggesting the race is a virtual dead heat. John Edwards was next at 23 percent, followed by Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. Obama's one-point edge shows up among men (32-31) and women (36-35). He trails Clinton among registered Democrats (35-30 with Edwards at 27) but leads among undeclared voters (41-29-17).
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/3-4/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire Granite State tracking poll
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]
Quote: "Both Obama and Edwards appear to have benefited from the Iowa caucuses. Each picked up three points in New Hampshire. Clinton lost one point, since our last poll taken before the caucuses," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider. The biggest shift appears to be on electability. Thirty-six percent of likely Democratic New Hampshire primary voters now think Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican presidential nominee. That's down nine points from CNN's last Granite State survey, which was conducted December 27 to 30. Obama is just behind Clinton when it comes to electability, at 35 percent, a virtual tie. Obama has gained 13 points since CNN's pre-caucus poll. "Obama got something else out of winning Iowa: a big boost in his perceived electability. A week ago, Clinton led Obama by better than two to one when New Hampshire Democrats were asked which candidate has the best chance of beating the Republican in November. Obama's victory in an overwhelmingly white state may have resolved some doubts about an African-American candidate's electability," Schneider said.
American Research Group
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Added: 1/6/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads John Edwards among men 42% to 21%, with 19% for Hillary Clinton. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 35% to 31%, with 20% for Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among Democrats 34% to 32%, while Obama leads Edwards among undeclared voters (independents) 49% to 21%.
Rasmussen Reports
Mid-date: 1/4/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/5/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents. Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton. Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton. Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/3/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: Among likely–voting Democrats, Clinton also enjoys strength with 36% support, compared to 24% for Obama and 20% for Edwards. Among independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama enjoys 34% backing, compared to 26% support for Clinton and 21% for Edwards. Independent voters are important in New Hampshire because they can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. While 64% of likely voting New Hampshire independents said they were planning to vote in the Democratic primary, about 36% said they would vote in the GOP contest – an 8-point swing in favor of the Democrats compared to just one day earlier. As in Iowa, younger Democrats favor Obama over Clinton, but his advantage is not now near where it was in Iowa. Likewise, Clinton retains an Iowa–like edge among older voters, but she also has a smaller edge here than in Iowa. Edwards is a solid third in all age groups.
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/3/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/5/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
American Research Group
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 36% to 28%, with 17% for John Edwards. Among women, Clinton leads Obama 41% to 26%, with 14% for Edwards. Obama has regained the lead among undeclared (independent) voters with 37%, followed by Clinton at 25% and Edwards at 19%.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/4/08
Est. MoE = 3.0% [?]
Quote: Among likely–voting Democrats, Clinton also enjoys strength with 36% support, compared to 22% for Obama and 19% for Edwards. Among independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama enjoys 33% backing, compared to 27% support for Clinton and 21% for Edwards. Independent voters are important in New Hampshire because they can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, and the inter–party competition for their affections is fierce. Eight years ago, they supported McCain in the GOP race instead of New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley in the Democratic race against Al Gore, dealing a severe blow to the Bradley campaign. In this tracking poll, the competition appears to be shaping up between McCain and Obama. As in Iowa, younger Democrats favor Obama over Clinton, but his advantage is not now near where they were in Iowa. Likewise, Clinton retains an Iowa–like edge among older voters, but she also has a smaller edge here than in Iowa. Edwards is a solid third in all age groups.
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/4/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/1/2008
New Hampshire
Added: 1/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: “Hillary Clinton has methodically locked up the most reliable voters. In addition, she has widespread support geographically in the four major regions of the state, right down to the county level.”
Republican Polls
Final New Hampshire Results
Date: 1/8/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = -100.0% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/6-7/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/5-7/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]
Quote: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was tied for fourth in New Hampshire with Texas Rep. Ron Paul, an anti-war libertarian, at 9 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson was at 2 percent. "The question is whether Romney can pick up any more steam, because he did slightly better on the last day," Zogby said. "McCain still has strong leads among independents and among older voters." The final day of polling came after Sunday's debate with his rivals, when Romney went on the offensive against Huckabee and McCain on taxes and immigration and was not the target he was in a debate on Saturday.
American Research Group
Date: 1/6-7
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 25% to 23%, with 19% for Rudy Giuliani, and McCain leads Romney 38% to 26% among women, with 16% for Huckabee. McCain leads Romney 30% to 25% among Republicans and 34% to 21% among undeclared (independent) voters, with 19% for Huckabee. Both McCain and Romney have lost support to Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul.
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
Date: 1/4-6
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: Essentially, McCain turned a 13-point deficit into a 7-point advantage in about three weeks’ time. Romney voters (66 percent) and Giuliani voters (66 percent) are equally likely to think their candidate can win the November 2008 general election, while Huckabee supporters (54 percent) and McCain supporters (53 percent) are somewhat less confident of their candidate winning it all. McCain voters (29 percent) registered the highest degree of enthusiasm for the prospect of their candidate actually winning the White House, followed by supporters of Romney (20 percent), Huckabee (12 percent) and Giuliani (11 percent).
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]
Quote: The race remains too close to call partly because of questions about how many Independents will participate, but also because a significant percentage of voters could change their mind. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Romney supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 70% of McCain’s supporters. However, just 8% of Romney voters and 7% of McCain fans say there is a “good chance” they will change their mind.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: “Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney among Independents 43% to 26%, voters over 50, Moderates (50% to 20%), women (36% to 25%), and in the North (45% to 21%, effectively knocking out Paul). It is tied between Romney and McCain with Republicans and men. Romney leads among Conservatives and Very Conservative voters.”
Marist College Poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
American Research Group
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 33% to 30% and McCain leads Romney 38% to 23% among women. McCain leads Romney 44% to 19% among undeclared (independent) voters, with 19% for Huckabee.
USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]
Quote: A key question since Huckabee's dramatic win in Iowa has been its potential impact on New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Iowa -- with a significant proportion of evangelical Christians -- was fertile ground for the former Baptist minister's campaign, but it has been unclear whether more secular New Hampshire would be as receptive to his appeal. There are indications that Huckabee has moved up sharply among Republicans nationally since the Iowa vote (new national Gallup Poll data will be reviewed here at gallup.com on Tuesday). But the weekend poll in New Hampshire shows little sign that Huckabee has been able to transform his Iowa victory into anything approaching the type of surge seen for Obama among New Hampshire Democrats. Huckabee had 9% of the vote in mid-December and 13% in the weekend, post-Iowa poll, a gain of just four percentage points. The more significant change that occurred between the two polls was in the relative positioning of the two front-runners in the Republican field -- Romney and McCain. Whereas Romney led McCain among likely New Hampshire primary voters by seven points in mid-December, McCain now leads Romney by four points. The four-point McCain lead is not statistically significant, but suggests he has a real chance of coming away from New Hampshire with a victory, as he did in 2000. Rudy Giuliani's share of the New Hampshire vote dropped by three points, and he is tied with Ron Paul for fourth place in the poll. Fred Thompson, who tied McCain for third in Iowa, looks to be an afterthought in New Hampshire.
Franklin Pierce University/WBZ Poll conducted with RKM Research and Communications
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]
Quote: McCain appears to have strengthened his lead over rival Mitt Romney. The Arizona senator tops the poll with 38 percent, while Romney comes in with 29 percent, which is 2 percent less than the four days ago. Huckabee comes in at a distant third with 9 percent, but it seems he received a modest bounce from the Iowa results. Support for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has significantly dropped over the past 11 months. Giuliani started off strong with 28 percent back in March 2007, but according to the latest poll results, only 8 percent of those polled would vote for Giuliani if the election was today. Among Republican voters polled, 29 percent think Romney will win the GOP nomination, which is only 1 percent more than McCain. Just four days ago, Romney was at 34 percent and McCain was at 25 percent.
Strategic Vision
Date: 1/4-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, or undecided? (Republicans Only) Very Important 58%. Somewhat Important 16%. Not Very Important 8%. Not Important 10%. Undecided 8%.
CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire Granite State tracking poll
Date: 1/5-6/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 5.6% [?]
Quote: Sen.John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by a narrower margin -- 32 percent to 26 percent, the survey found. Former Arkansas Gov.Mike Huckabee -- whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney -- passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to gain third place. In Saturday's poll, Giuliani had 14 percent and Huckabee had 11 percent; those numbers were reversed on Sunday. The results suggest that Huckabee's win in Iowa, which saw him win strong support among evangelical Christian voters, is giving him momentum in more secular, libertarian-oriented New Hampshire, Schneider said. Crucial to the outcome in New Hampshire are the state's independent voters, who make up around 40 percent of the electorate, and who can vote in either party's primary. The poll indicates that a growing number of registered Independents say they will vote in the GOP contest, which is a switch from just a month ago.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]
Quote: The current poll shows Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul each earning 11% of the vote with Rudy Giuliani close behind at 9%. Fred Thompson earns 4%, some other candidate attracts 2%, and 3% are not sure. Romney has a slight edge over McCain among conservative voters, 34% to 28%. McCain holds more than a two-to-one advantage over Romney among moderates. Nationally, in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Rasmussen Markets data, there is no clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. In New Hampshire’s Democratic race, Barack Obama has a solid lead over Hillary Clinton. McCain appeals to more Primary Voters as a general election candidate than any other candidate in the field. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Likely Primary Voters say they’d be at least somewhat likely to vote for McCain in November. Seventy-five percent (75%) say the same about Romney, and 74% would consider voting for Giuliani. Just 65% say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Huckabee if he is nominated while 62% say the same about Thompson. Just 52% would consider voting for Ron Paul if he is nominated. Among just Republicans likely to participate in the Primary, 87% say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for McCain. That too is the highest total for any candidate.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Date: 1/2-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]
Quote: “On the Republican side, Romney leads by a hair. McCain’s problem is that there are fewer Independents choosing to vote thus far in the Republican primary (just one in four total) to help him match his impressive victory here over George W. Bush in 2000. McCain leads Romney among Independents 48% to 28%, while Romney scores well thus far with Republicans, 33% to 25%. McCain simply needs more Indies but that clearly seems to be Obama’s turf. “Huckabee has climbed a little and will move up a little more. Paul does well in Buchanan country (in the North with 14%) but McCain’s iconoclasm and Huckabee’s gains so far seem to be squeezing Paul’s overall showing.”
McClatchy MSNBC Poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research
Date: 1/2-4/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]
Quote: On the Republican side, McCain led the field by 32 percent to 24 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. There, it was McCain who got a bounce, not Iowa winner Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who still trails in third place and appeared to get no immediate traction from Iowa. The new poll is hardly a prediction. If anything, it revealed an electorate in New Hampshire still very much up for grabs.
Research 2000 for The Concord Monitor
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]
Quote: John McCain has doubled his support since mid-December and leads Mitt Romney, 35 percent to 29 percent, according to a Concord Monitor/Research 2000 post-Iowa survey of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee was the choice of 13 percent of those surveyed, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 8 percent, Ron Paul at 7 percent, Fred Thompson at 3 percent and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent. McCain leads among men (37-26) and women (33-32). He leads Romney among registered Republicans (32-30 with Huckabee at 16) and undeclared voters (44-26 with Paul at 13).
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Date: 1/3-4/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire Granite State tracking poll
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 5.3% [?]
Quote: Romney was the front-runner in most New Hampshire polls until last month, when McCain pulled even in many surveys. "It looks like Huckabee's victory among Iowa Republicans helped John McCain more than Mike Huckabee. Huckabee gained one point among New Hampshire Republicans. McCain gained four. A week ago, McCain and Mitt Romney were tied in New Hampshire. Now McCain now leads Romney by 6 points," said Schneider. For the CNN/WMUR survey, 359 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Democratic primary and 313 Granite State residents likely to vote in the Republican primary were interviewed.
American Research Group
Date: 1/4-5/08
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 42% to 21% and McCain leads Romney 35% to 30% among women. McCain leads Romney 44% to 19% among undeclared (independent) voters, with 18% for Huckabee. Undeclared voters are now 27% of the total Republican vote.
Rasmussen Reports
Mid-date: 1/4/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
Quote: McCain and Romney are tied among Republicans likely to vote in the Primary but McCain has an advantage among Independent voters. Independents are still more likely to participate in the Democratic Primary. Still, the survey suggests that 32% of voters in the GOP Primary will be unaffiliated with either major party. The Republican race remains fluid as nearly a third of GOP voters say they could still change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of McCain’s voters say they are “certain” they will vote for him. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Romney supporters are that certain along with 83% of Ron Paul voters and 66% for Mike Huckabee. In New Hampshire, McCain is now seen as the most electable Republican. Seventy-six percent (76%) of GOP voters say the Arizona Senator is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Sixty-eight percent (68%) have that confidence in Romney and 60% say the same of Rudy Giuliani. Just 42% believe Huckabee would be even somewhat likely to win; 25% hold that view of Thompson, and 18% believe Paul would have a chance. Among New Hampshire’s Likely Republican Primary Voters, National Security Issues are deemed Very Important by 78%. Immigration is seen as Very Important by 65%, government ethics and corruption by 64%, Iraq by 64%. Sixty-one percent (59%) say the economy is Very Important in determining how they will vote.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/3/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: McCain’s lead continues to be based on the strength of support among independents, where he holds a 42% to 29% over Romney, with no other Republican winning more than 10% support among this group. Among moderates, McCain’s edge dropped from 53% support to 48% support after yesterday’s polling was added to the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby three-day rolling average, while while Romney also lost some ground, dropping from 24% to 22%. Meanwhile, Romney’s edge over McCain among mainline conservatives – the largest voting bloc in the GOP - increased from one to five points. Huckabee’s bounce from the Iowa victory comes among those who consider themselves “very conservative,” where he jumped from 21% to 28% when just yesterday’s post-Iowa caucus polling is folded into the mix. However, Romney still leads in the category with 33% support. McCain wins 20% among the very conservative. Among men, McCain’s lead over Romney shrank from five to one point. McCain retains a two-point lead over Romney among women, but both lost ground. Still, no other Republican is close among women.
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/3/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
American Research Group
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 33% to 24% and McCain leads Romney 37% to 27% among women. McCain leads Romney 49% to 19% among undeclared (independent) voters.
Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]
Quote: Republican John McCain has leapt into first place in the GOP primary race in New Hampshire, while Clinton holds on to a six–point edge in the first three–day Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll of likely voters shows. McCain’s lead is based on strength of support among moderates and independents, while Romney holds his own in what is, like Iowa, a two–man contest at this point in the GOP contest. Among moderates, McCain wins 53% support compared to 24% for Romney – and little significant support for anyone else on the GOP side. Among mainline conservatives, the two are evenly matched with Romney winning 32% and McCain winning 31%. Among self–described “very conservative” likely primary voters, Romney leads by a wide margin with 38%. Mike Huckabee is in second among the demographic group, with 21%. McCain is third with 19%. Among men, McCain leads Romney, 35% to 30%, and among women, McCain has 32% support to Romney’s 30%. Huckabee is third and Giuliani a close fourth in both gender demographics.
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/3/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/2/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
7News Suffolk University Tracking Poll
Mid-date: 1/1/2008
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]
Quote: McCain led 46 percent-to-24 percent among older voters. He also led among both registered Republicans and independents, the latter a former stronghold of the Romney campaign. In addition, Ron Paul’s third-place showing among independents (11 percent) may reduce the available independent pie left on election day. “Straight talk never gets old,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “The question is: Can John McCain survive a third-place finish in Iowa if Mitt Romney storms into New Hampshire with a first- or second-place win.”
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 New Hampshire polls.
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