Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Democrat Polls

WNBC / Marist Poll
Date: 1/30-31
New York
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Quote:

Most Democrats strongly support their choice: 78% of likely Democratic voters strongly support a candidate for their party�s nomination for president. 79% of likely Democrats who back Hillary Clinton say they are strongly committed to her. 76% of Barack Obama�s supporters are firmly committed to him.

Hillary Clinton	54%
Barack Obama	38%
Unsure	8%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
New York
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted immediately after Clinton's win in New Hampshire, but before Obama's win in South Carolina and Clinton's win in Florida, Clinton is down 2, Obama is up 8. Among men, Obama is up 16 points. Clinton leads by 37 among women. Obama leads by 12 among men. A 49-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads by 25 among whites. Obama leads by 25 among blacks.

Hillary Clinton	54%
Barack Obama	38%
Unsure	4%
Other	4%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 1/29
New York
Added: 1/31/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

Most striking is that Obama trails by only 12 points despite earning the support of only 44% of African American voters in the state. �Barack Obama has a lot of room to improve his black support in the state,� said Debnam. �If he can do that and also pick up a majority of former Edwards supporters who might be attracted to his message of hope, he has a decent chance of making this primary much more competitive than it was expected to be.�

Hillary Clinton	45%
Barack Obama	33%
John Edwards	10%
Unsure	13%
Source

Datamar Inc
Date: 1/20-22
New York
Added: 1/31/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

Methodology: Findings are based on a January 20 - 22, 2008 survey of New York voters. The survey was conducted using an automated telephone dialer and the voice of a professional announcer. The targeted-registration-based-sampling (TRBS)* selection criteria were based on election cycles and other voter factors in New York. Datamar proprietary algorithms were used to generate random samples from the target group for calling.
The targeted-registration-based-sampling (TRBS)* selection criteria were based on election cycles and other voter factors in New York. Datamar proprietary algorithms were used to generate random samples from the target group for calling.

Hillary Clinton	51%
Barack Obama	23%
John Edwards	11%
Dennis Kucinich	4%
Unsure	10%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/23-26
New York
Added: 1/28/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

Clinton has led in almost every poll conducted in New York for months, and the current results are certainly no surprise. The surprise would be if Clinton began to falter in her own home state, the one in which she gained an overwhelming margin of victory in her Senate re-election bid in 2006.
Still, this poll was completed before the results of Saturday's South Carolina primary were known. Barack Obama's substantial win in South Carolina, and the publicity that surrounded it, could have an effect on New York Democrats. Additionally, of course, the candidates will be campaigning and advertising in New York in the days leading up to the Feb. 5 vote.

Hillary Clinton	56%
Barack Obama	28%
John Edwards	10%
Unsure	6%
Source

Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 1/14-21
New York
Added: 1/23/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

Among Democrats, 74 percent of Clinton supporters and 62 percent of Obama backers say they are not likely to change their minds.

Hillary Clinton	51%
Barack Obama	25%
John Edwards	11%
Dennis Kucinich	2%
Unsure	10%
Source

Zogby
Date: 1/19-20
New York
Added: 1/22/08
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]

Quote:

As she has in other early�voting states, Clinton is again dominating among women, with 55% opting for her, to just 17% for Obama. Men, however, were more evenly split, with 38% of their number supporting Clinton and 37% going for Obama.
African-American voters, preferred Obama 56% to 19%. White voters, however, liked Clinton better, 52% to 17%. Hispanic voters, too, liked Clinton, 74% to Obama�s 12%.
More Democrats said they were looking for a candidate who represented change, than experience, 53% to 38%. Among them, 38% said Clinton represented change, with Obama a close second, at 35%

Hillary Clinton	47%
Barack Obama	26%
John Edwards	9%
Dennis Kucinich	1%
Unsure	14%
Other	2%
Source

WNBC/Marist Poll
Date: 1/15-17
New York
Added: 1/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Quote:

Intensity of Support: Overall, 68% of likely Democratic voters strongly support a candidate for their party�s nomination for president. 79% of likely Democrats who back Hillary Clinton say they are strongly committed to her. This compares with 58% of Barack Obama�s supporters who are firmly committed to him.
Electability: A majority of likely Democratic primary voters in New York think Hillary Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican candidate for president in November. 59% think Clinton is the most electable Democratic presidential candidate compared with 24% who believe Obama is.
The Voters� Priorities: The economy is the number one issue on the minds of likely Democratic primary voters in New York. 37% of likely Democratic voters are most concerned about the economy followed by 20% who cite the war in Iraq , and 19% who mention health care as the most important issue.

Hillary Clinton	48%
Barack Obama	32%
John Edwards	9%
Dennis Kucinich	3%
Unsure	7%
Other	1%
Source

Siena College Poll
Date: 1/14-17
New York
Added: 1/21/08
Est. MoE = 5.6% [?]

Quote:

�Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton still has a strong home field advantage, maintaining a two-to-one lead over Barack Obama,� Greenberg said. �While he has picked up considerable support with African- and Caribbean-American Democrats, Obama still trails Clinton 46-36 percent among black Democrats, and Clinton has a 50-18 percent lead with white Democrats. Hillary leads by at least 30 points with voters 35 and older, however, Obama leads 40-38 percent with Democrats younger than 35 years of age.�

Hillary Clinton	48%
Barack Obama	23%
John Edwards	10%
Unsure	19%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 1/9-10/08
New York
Added: 1/11/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads by 8 points among men, leads by 43 points among women. Clinton leads by 36 points among whites. Obama leads by 9 among blacks. Clinton leads 3:1 among seniors. Clinton leads by 21 in New York City, leads by 32 in the suburbs of NYC, leads by 37 Upstate. 31% of Democrats say they may change their mind before 02/05/08. Among those who say their mind is made up, Clinton is up 33 points.

Hillary Clinton	56%
Barack Obama	29%
John Edwards	8%
Other	8%
Source

Republican Polls

WNBC / Marist Poll
Date: 1/30-31
New York
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

John McCain trounces the narrowed field of Republican candidates and outpaces his closest challenger former Governor Mitt Romney by two and a half times to one among Republicans likely to vote. Including likely Republican voters who are leaning toward a candidate, McCain receives the support of 61% compared with 24% for Romney. Former Governor Mike Huckabee and Congressman Ron Paul trail with single digits.

John McCain	61%
Mitt Romney	24%
Mike Huckabee	6%
Ron Paul	5%
Unsure	4%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
New York
Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

Quote:

In New York, Republican McCain Runs Away With It: 4 days to the New York Republican Primary, John McCain has a striking advantage over Mitt Romney, according to SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll in the state. McCain at 55% leads Romney by 34 points, with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul further back. McCain is dominant in every region of the state, and leads among most every demographic sub-group.

John McCain	55%
Mitt Romney	21%
Mike Huckabee	7%
Ron Paul	4%
Unsure	5%
Other	8%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 1/29
New York
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]

Quote:

�Even if he had stayed in the race, Rudy Giuliani didn�t have much of a chance of winning his home state,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Unless his supporters break toward Mitt Romney in large numbers, it appears that John McCain will win by a pretty significant margin in New York.�

John McCain	34%
Rudy Giuliani	20%
Mitt Romney	19%
Mike Huckabee	10%
Ron Paul	4%
Unsure	14%
Source

Datamar Inc
Date: 1/20-22
New York
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

Methodology: Findings are based on December 2 - 8, 2008 survey of New York voters. The survey was conducted using an automated telephone dialer using the voice of a professional announcer, and online, where respondents used a login to access the survey.
The targeted-registration-based-sampling (TRBS)* selection criteria were based on election cycles and other voter factors in New York. Datamar proprietary algorithms were used to generate random samples from the target group for calling.

John McCain	29%
Rudy Giuliani	23%
Mitt Romney	16%
Mike Huckabee	10%
Ron Paul	6%
Fred Thompson	5%
Unsure	13%
Source

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/23-26
New York
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

McCain leads Giuliani by 18- and 19-point margins among the turnout groups. Romney is in third place, but at this point would be more competitive with Giuliani for second place in a low-turnout election. Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are next, with Huckabee a solid fourth in a low-turnout election.
Almost half of Republican voters indicate that they might change their minds about their vote, a relatively high number. By way of comparison, significantly fewer registered Republican voters in California interviewed in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted over exactly the same period said they might change their minds about their vote preference

John McCain	42%
Rudy Giuliani	24%
Mitt Romney	14%
Mike Huckabee	8%
Ron Paul	5%
Alan Keyes	1%
Unsure	6%
Source

Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 1/14-21
New York
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

A total of 71 percent of Giuliani's Republican backers say they are "not too likely" or "not likely at all" to change their minds, compared to 46 percent of McCain supporters.

John McCain	30%
Rudy Giuliani	30%
Mitt Romney	9%
Mike Huckabee	8%
Fred Thompson	8%
Ron Paul	4%
Unsure	9%
Other	1%
Source

Zogby
Date: 1/19-20
New York
Est. MoE = 5.0% [?]

Quote:

Among men, Giuliani held a slight 27% to 25% edge over McCain. Women, however, preferred McCain by a 23% to 17% margin over Romney. Giuliani won 16% support from women. Women are much more on the fence than men � 26% of women said they have yet to make up their minds, while just 14% of men are unsure.

John McCain	24%
Rudy Giuliani	21%
Mitt Romney	14%
Mike Huckabee	7%
Fred Thompson	7%
Ron Paul	2%
Unsure	20%
Other	5%
Source

WNBC/Marist Poll
Date: 1/15-17
New York
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]

Quote:

The Voters� Agenda: Three in ten Republicans are looking for a strong leader in their presidential nominee. Although John McCain is ahead of the other presidential contenders among this group of voters, 22% of Republicans who see this as the most important quality in the next president are still undecided about whom to support in the primary. 21% of Republicans want someone who is close to them on the issues. 20% would like someone who can bring about change and another one-fifth of the Republican electorate wants a candidate who shares their values.
The Voters� Priorities: The economy, the war in Iraq, and security from terrorism top the list of concerns on the minds of New York Republican voters. 24% of Republicans say the economy is the most important issue when deciding their vote for president, 18% mention the war in Iraq, and 16% cite security against terrorism.
Electability: 46% of registered Republicans in New York think John McCain is the Republican most likely to beat the Democrat in November. 19% of Republicans in the state have this view of Mitt Romney, and only 15% think Rudy Giuliani is most electable.

John McCain	34%
Mitt Romney	19%
Rudy Giuliani	19%
Mike Huckabee	15%
Fred Thompson	6%
Ron Paul	2%
Unsure	5%
Source

Siena College Poll
Date: 1/14-17
New York
Est. MoE = 7.1% [?]

Quote:

Giuliani led McCain 48-15 percent on December 10. Giuliani leads McCain in New York City 45-23 percent. McCain leads in the downstate suburbs 39-30 percent and upstate 37-15 percent. Among Republican men, McCain leads 44-16 percent, while Giuliani leads among women 33-28 percent.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of New York voters and unfavorably by 27 percent. For the first time ever in a Siena New York poll, more voters view Giuliani unfavorably, 48 percent, than favorably, 44 percent. Among Republicans only, Giuliani has a 63-31 percent favorable rating, while McCain has an even stronger 71-19 percent favorable rating.

John McCain	36%
Rudy Giuliani	24%
Mitt Romney	10%
Mike Huckabee	7%
Fred Thompson	6%
Unsure	17%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 1/9-10/08
New York
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

Giuliani leads by 11 points in New York City and leads by 5 points in the NYC suburbs. McCain leads by 4 points Upstate.Giuliani leads by 17 points among voters voters age 49 and younger. McCain leads by 12 among voters age 50+. McCain leads by 9 among Moderates. Giuliani leads by 6 among Conservatives. Huckabee gets 18% among Conservatives, 18% among Pro-Life voters. Republicans who think the Economy is the most important issue back McCain 33% to 28%. Those who say Terrorism is most important back Giuliani 40% to 26%.