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NBC17 by Research2000
Date: 4/29-30
North Carolina
Added: 5/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]
Quote: Of all age groups, men and women, Obama leads with 51 percent of the vote as compared to Clinton's 44 percent. Another three percent were undecided and two percent chose "other." The results are from the Research 2000 North Carolina Democratic Primary Poll, which was conduced April 29 and 30 across the state. The poll includes results from 500 likely Democratic voters who where interviewed by telephone with a 4.5 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that younger voters (ages 18-29) heavily favor Obama 67 percent to Clinton's 29 percent. On the other hand, those over 60 chose Clinton by a margin of 59 percent to 35 percent. Overall, Clinton leads for those over 45 years old while Obama leads all younger sets. Women also chose Clinton by a slight margin over Obama, 49 to 47 percent, while men chose Obama 56 percent to 38 percent for Clinton.
Mason Dixon Polling for WRAL
Date: 4/28-29
North Carolina
Added: 5/1/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]
Quote: �Right or wrong, it's the Wright phenomenon for Obama,� said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College. McLennan said Obama's former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is dragging down the Illinois senator. Wright has made comments such as suggesting that the AIDS virus was invented by the government to destroy "people of color." �It is a media-driven story. Wright is very controversial. He makes controversial statements. He gets people fired up, but it's not one of the top issues in the polls,� McLennan said. When asked what issues matter most to North Carolinians, 51 percent said jobs and the economy; 14 percent said the Iraq war, and health care followed those. As the candidates make their last-minute push toward Tuesday's primary, the question will be which one can carve into the other's core group of constituents. Obama scores well with voters under age 35, while Clinton edges him out with voters over 50. Where there is no competition is race. Eighty-seven percent of African Americans plan to vote for Obama, while 62 percent of whites said they will vote for Clinton. There has been very little evidence suggesting either candidate can cut into those numbers before Tuesday. �I don't think it's about advertising. I don't think it's about personal appearances. I think it really, it's who's energized to come out on Election Day,� McLennan said.
Insider Advantage
Date: 4/29
North Carolina
Added: 5/1/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]
Quote: Blacks: Obama 64%, Clinton 20%. Whites: Clinton 54%, Obama 34%. Women: Clinton 46%, Obama 39%.
Survey USA
Date: 4/26-28
North Carolina
Added: 4/30/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: In North Carolina, Clinton Closes To Within 5 Of Obama: In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 04/29/08, one week till votes are counted, the 10-point lead that Barack Obama has had for two months is halved, to now 5 points, Obama 49%, Clinton 44%, according to SurveyUSA's 7th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. In SurveyUSA last four polls, over the past two months, Obama has led by 10, 8, 10, and 9 points. Today: 5. White voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. But today, suddenly: 31. In the Research Triangle, Clinton is up 9 points, week-on-week; Obama is down 3; a net swing of 12 points to Clinton. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton has overtaken Obama for the first time in 2008, though the difference is small and within the sub-group's margin of sampling error. The two tie among Moderates. Obama leads slightly among Liberals. Clinton leads slightly among Conservatives. There is enough cross-current in the political waters that SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll, next week, may show more movement -- though in which direction it is impossible to know.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/28
North Carolina
Added: 4/30/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]
Quote: The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries�Clinton leads by fifteen points among White voters while Obama leads 80% to 11% among African-Americans. Clinton does well among White Women and older voters while Obama leads among those under 65. Among White voters who earn less than $60,000 annually, Clinton leads by a 2-to-1 margin. Obama leads among White voters who earn more than $75,000 a year. Obama is viewed favorably by 71% of the state�s Likely Primary Voters, down four points from the previous survey. Clinton is viewed favorably by 62%, down four since earlier this month. Among Clinton voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 38%. Among Obama voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 41%. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Clinton voters believe she would be the strongest general election candidate against John McCain. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Obama supporters believe he would be the better candidate in the fall. Overall, 62% believe that Obama will win the nomination while 26% believe it will be Clinton who ends up representing the party.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/26-27
North Carolina
Added: 4/29/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]
Quote: Obama still has a solid 51-39 advantage over Clinton in the state, but his lead had ranged from 18-25 points in PPP�s previous five North Carolina polls. The bulk of the movement in the race over the last week has come from white voters. The survey last week showed Obama pulling to within five points of Clinton with that group, but her lead now is back up at 56-35. �Barack Obama is certainly still the run away favorite in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �But she�s made some inroads since Pennsylvania and the race could end up being closer than might have been expected.�
American Research Group
Date: 4/26-27
North Carolina
Added: 4/29/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 42% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Obama leads 51% to 42%. Clinton leads 57% to 36% among white voters (62% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 83% to 13% among African American voters (33% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 64% to 30% among voters age 18 to 49 (53% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 55% to 39% among voters age 50 and older. 26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. Among likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49, 32% say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary and 18% say they would never vote for Obama in the primary. Among likely Democratic primary voters age 50 and older, 19% say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary and 33% say they would never vote for Obama in the primary.
Survey USA
Date: 4/19-21
North Carolina
Added: 4/23/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: North Carolina in Every Respect the Opposite of Pennsylvania: On the day Pennsylvania Democrats vote in a primary that has seen opinion polls fluctuate wildly on how big her possible win might be, North Carolina Democratic Primary voters are steady-steady, and not with Clinton on top, but Obama. Obama's advantage has fluctuated imperceptibly, or not at all, in four tracking polls conducted over the past 90 days. Today, 14 days till NC votes are counted, Obama leads by 9 points. In five previous tracking polls, going back to before the Michigan Primary, Obama's lead has been 4 points, 10 points, 8 points, 10 points. NC men are stable .NC women are stable .Voters under age 50 are stable . Voters age 50+ are stable .Black voters are stable .White voters are stable. Charlotte voters are stable .Moderates are stable .Registered Democrats are stable .Unaffiliated voters are stable .
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/19-20
North Carolina
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: �The bigger question than whether Barack Obama would win North Carolina might be whether the Democratic contest even ends up coming to the state,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Our Pennsylvania numbers are showing a very tight race and if Obama pulls off a victory or even a narrow defeat Clinton may drop out before the primary here.� Obama is doing pretty well with pretty much every demographic group in the poll.
American Research Group
Date: 4/14-15
North Carolina
Added: 4/17/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 54% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Obama leads 50% to 44%. Clinton leads 57% to 33% among white voters (62% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 10% among African American voters (34% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 60% to 32% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 50% to 44% among voters age 50 and older. 26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll
Date: 4/10-14
North Carolina
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: In North Carolina, the poll found, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 34% -- a finding in keeping with expectations that he will do well in the state, which has a large African American population. Among blacks there, 71% supported Obama; only 5% backed Clinton and 24% were undecided. One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.
Insider Advantage / Majority Opinion Research
Date: 4/14
North Carolina
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �With significant experience polling races in the South, I think I can say pretty definitively that the comments by Sen. Obama about �religion and guns� this past week have not weakened his position in North Carolina. �Since our last poll in late March, none of the key demographic groups have changed significantly. In particular, Sen. Clinton has gained virtually no ground among white voters. �It is still possible that the Clinton campaign could mount a charge in North Carolina should they win by a large margin in Pennsylavania and gain the money needed to launch a major television blitz aimed at especially rural voters. �However, the makeup of the white Democratic vote in North Carolina is heavily populated with voters from �Research Triangle� universities-based region, where an appeal to rural white voters simply will not be effective,� he said.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/12-13
North Carolina
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: Obama leads in every region of the state, including those dominated by small towns. �It may be that most of the likely voters we polled over the weekend had not heard about the controversy yet,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �At the same time he has such a strong advantage in the state that it may not cause him much harm even with folks who do know about his comments.� The survey also found that an endorsement from John Edwards would make 30% of likely voters more likely to vote for Obama and 24% more likely to vote for Clinton.
Survey USA
Date: 4/5-7
North Carolina
Added: 4/9/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: Steady As Steady Could Be in North Carolina Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 04/08/08, four weeks to the 05/06/08 Primary, Barack Obama is 10 points atop Hillary Clinton, exactly where Obama was two months ago, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV, the ABC-owned TV station in Raleigh. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show remarkable stability within the sub-populations. Among men, over the past 2 months, Obama led by 18, by 13, and today by 15 points. Among women, Obama led by 2, by 3, and today by 6 points. Among whites, Clinton led by 19, by 17, and today by 22 points. Among blacks, Obama led by 65, by 61, and today by 75 points. Obama has gained ground in Raleigh, where he led by 8 points last month and by 18 points today. The contest remains effectively tied in Charlotte, with Clinton now sea-sawing past Obama, but still within sampling error. And Obama retains the slightest lead in Southern and Coastal Carolina, where Obama led by 4 in February, by 8 in March, and by 11 today. Among voters under age 50, Obama's lead has increased from 19 points last month to 29 points today. Among voters age 50+, Clinton advances slightly, from a 4-point lead last month to an 11-point lead today.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/5-6
North Carolina
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]
Quote: �The race in North Carolina has really stabilized,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Even with both candidates now running tv ads in the state, Obama is maintaining his lead in that solid 20 point range. A reignition of the Wright controversy or some other issue for the Obama campaign could tighten it up but for now he�s looking at a dominant victory.� The poll also found that 43% of likely voters think the drawn out primary contest could hurt Democratic prospects in the fall. Obama has a 29 point lead with that group, an indication that some voters may be moving toward his column because they want the fight to be over with.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/3
North Carolina
Added: 4/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: Perhaps the only disturbing news for Obama in the survey is that most Clinton voters (56%) say they are not likely to vote for the Illinois Senator in the general election against John McCain. A month ago, 45% of Clinton voters said they were not likely to vote for Obama against McCain. There remains an enormous racial divide in the North Carolina data. Obama leads 86% to 9% among African-American voters. Clinton holds a 47% to 38% advantage among white voters in the Tar Heel State. A month ago, Obama led by fifty-three points among African-Americans while Clinton led by twenty points among White voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 75% of the state�s Likely Primary Voters, up three points from a month ago. Clinton is viewed favorably by 66%, down four since early March. In North Carolina, 52% say that the economy is the top voting issue while 21% name the War in Iraq. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Tar Heel Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton should drop out of the race. Fifteen percent (15%) say the same about Obama. Forty-two percent (42%) say it�s Very Likely the Democratic race will remain unsettled until the convention. Another 38% say that is Somewhat Likely. By a 57% to 29% margin, North Carolina voters believe that Obama would be the better candidate against John McCain. Seventy-seven percent (77%) have followed news stories about Clinton�s misstatements about her Bosnia trip. Twenty-three percent (23%) say they are a Very Important issue while 25% say the issue is Somewhat Important. Sixty-three percent (63%) say that most politicians lie or embellish the truth when discussing their own accomplishments. Just 5% of Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina rate the economy as good or excellent. Thirty percent (30%) say it�s in fair shape while 64% rate current economic conditions as poor. Just 4% say things are getting better while 86% say they are getting worse.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 North Carolina polls.
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