Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Democrat Polls

Charlotte Observer WNCN Poll
Date: 3/29-4/1
North Carolina
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]

Quote:

Two out of three voters give Obama high marks for his ability to connect with voters. That compares with a third who gave McCain and Clinton high marks.
Three of four voters ranked Obama high in intelligence. That's more than the two-thirds who gave his rivals high marks.
N.C. voters say they're also looking for candidates who aren't afraid to take tough stands, who offer the ability to unite the country and who hold the promise of change.

Barack Obama	35%
Hillary Clinton	26%
Unsure	39%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/29-30
North Carolina
Added: 3/31/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]

Quote:

�Throughout the country Barack Obama has had a lot of success in generating support from folks who aren�t always a part of the political process,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �His campaign appears to be creating that same sort of excitement in North Carolina, and it�s showing in the polls.�

Barack Obama	54%
Hillary Clinton	36%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 3/29-30
North Carolina
Added: 3/31/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 50% to 35% among men (44% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Obama leads 51% to 40%.
Clinton leads 49% to 37% among white voters (62% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 78% to 17% among African American voters (34% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Obama leads 51% to 39% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 51% to 38% among voters age 50 and older.
30% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Barack Obama	51%
Hillary Clinton	38%
Unsure	7%
Other	4%
Source

Insider Advantage
Date: 3/27
North Carolina
Added: 3/31/08
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]

Quote:

�Firewall state� has been the king of clich�s during this campaign season, but that term has never applied more than North Carolina does for Clinton. If she loses badly here, regardless of any modest gains in the national delegate count, her candidacy may be done unless her primary victories in Florida and Michigan somehow end up being seated at the national nominating convention.
Most troubling for Clinton is that the trends in our polling of North Carolina show that a modest but significant portion of whites are drifting from Clinton back into the �undecided� column. Twenty percent of whites are undecided.�
Usually voters who change their minds do so gradually,� said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage. �A voter who�s going to switch from Clinton to Obama likely will first say they are undecided, and only later make a complete switch from her to him,� he said.
Our new poll also indicates that the controversy about Barack Obama�s fiery former church pastor so far isn�t alienating enough whites to significantly boost Clinton�s chances for a comeback in the Democratic race, at least in North Carolina.

Barack Obama	49%
Hillary Clinton	34%
Unsure	17%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/24
North Carolina
Added: 3/26/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Quote:

�The rule of thumb in this Presidential race is that if you don�t like how things are going, just wait a week and they�ll turn around,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Obama has really improved his standing in North Carolina by visiting the state and openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign.�

Barack Obama	55%
Hillary Clinton	34%
Unsure	11%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/17
North Carolina
Added: 3/20/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Quote:

�Some folks in the national media have been treating North Carolina as if winning it is a given for Barack Obama,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �The reality is that the state is pretty close, and either candidate could emerge with a victory.�
Recent PPP polls in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida have shown Obama struggling in the wake of the recent controversy surrounding his pastor.
The survey also found Richard Moore gaining 17 points from a poll two weeks ago to get within a 44-34 margin of Bev Perdue.
�That�s the power of television,� said Debnam. �Richard Moore�s new ad, launched in the last week, has clearly caused some movement in the polls.�
In the Democratic race for US Senate, Kay Hagan continues to hold a double digit lead over Jim Neal. Hagan is at 22% to Neal�s 11%, followed by Duskin Lassiter at 5% and Marcus Williams and Howard Staley with 3%.

Barack Obama	44%
Hillary Clinton	43%
Unsure	13%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 3/8-10
North Carolina
Added: 3/13/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 03/11/08, eight weeks to the vote, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, before Obama won Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin, and before Clinton won Texas and Ohio, the contest in NC is largely unchanged. Then, Obama led by 10, now by 8. In Charlotte, Obama led by 2 points a month ago, by 7 points today. In Southern and Eastern NC, Obama led by 4 points a month ago, by 8 points today. Only in Raleigh and Greensboro did Clinton slice into Obama, trimming his lead from 16 points a month ago to 8 points today. Among women, Obama and Clinton are effectively even, as they were last month. Among men, Obama leads by 13. Clinton leads 5:3 among whites. Obama leads 5:1 among blacks. Obama leads among voters under age 50. The two are tied among voters age 50+.

Barack Obama	49%
Hillary Clinton	41%
Unsure	4%
Other	6%
Source

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/6
North Carolina
Added: 3/13/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

Obama leads by fourteen points among men and just two points among women. There is an enormous racial divide as well. Obama leads 71% to 18% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a twenty point lead among white voters in the Tar Heel State.
Obama is viewed favorably by 72% of the state�s Likely Primary Voters. That figure includes 45% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Senator from Illinois.
Clinton is viewed favorably by 70%, including 33% with a Very Favorable opinion.
If Clinton wins the nomination, just 67% of Obama�s voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her in the general election against John McCain. Eighteen percent (18%) of Obama voters say they�re Not Very Likely to vote for Clinton in the general election. Fourteen percent (14%) say they�re Not at All Likely.
If Obama wins the nomination, just 49% of Clinton voters say they�re Somewhat or Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) say they�re Not Very Likely to vote for Obama in the general election. Twenty-six percent (26%) say Not at All Likely.

Barack Obama	47%
Hillary Clinton	40%
Unsure	14%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/3
North Carolina
Added: 3/7/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Quote:

�This isn�t actually particularly good news for Obama,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �He�s been leading in most North Carolina polls over the last three weeks by double digits. But as the national polls and last night�s results have shown Clinton inching closer, the same trend has occurred in North Carolina.�
One thing that�s very clear is that the spectacle of a contested primary will bring more folks to the polls in North Carolina. 75% of those surveyed said they were more likely to vote if the primary would influence the nominee for President.